Save Indonesia Real GDP

Indonesia is the largest economy in SE Asia and a lower-middle income country with GDP per capita being nearly 3,800 US$. Private consumption and foreign trade are the main contributors to its GDP. Government debt is relatively low among 6 ASEAN countries, accounting for 30% of GDP. Total population are nearly 264 million people, the biggest among 6 ASEAN countries. Median age is 30 years old. With a huge amount of working-age population and low wage, the country takes advantage of its demographic dividend.

GDP shares are as follow:
Agriculture: 12%
Industry: 38%, roughly 65% of which are manufacture, with another 30% being construction and 20% being mining. 30% of manufacture are food-processing.
Services: 50%, roughly 30% of which are retails, wholesales and vehicle maintenance, and 12% are information and communication.

Indonesia's trade to GDP ratio is 35%. Consumption accounts for the most of GDP due to its huge population. The country has often been in a trade deficit, so its foreign reserves are lower than other ASEAN countries. Its main exports are chemical and fuel and consumer goods. Major trade partners include China, ASEAN and Japan.

FDI from Singapore (25%), China & Hong Kong (25%) and Japan (15%) mostly flow into industry (30%) and services (60%).

Save Real GDP Shares

Indonesia is the largest economy in SE Asia. Its GDP shares based on spending are as follow:
Private consumption expenditure: 55%
Government consumption expenditure: 7%
Investment: 33%
Exports: 20%
Imports: 15%

GDP shares based on production are as follow:
Primary sector: 12%
Secondary sector: 40%
Tertiary sector: 48%
Consumption accounts for 55% of Indonesian GDP because of its huge population of 264 million people.

Save 7-day Reverse Repo Rate vs. CPI

Indonesia's 7-day Reverse Repo Rate is determined by Bank Indonesia (BI). BI adjusts base rate based on inflation. BI cuts rate when inflation hits under target and raises rate when inflation rises over target.

Save Money Supply

M1 includes notes, coins in circulation and demand deposits.
M2 is money in a broader sense, including M1, saving deposits and time deposits.
M3 includes M2 and bank debentures, commercial paper, money market funds and debt securities.

Save Bank Loans (YoY)

70% of bank loans are business loans and 30% are household loans. In general, business loans increase when companies are optimistic towards the future economy. Household loans increase when people are optimistic and willing to spend.

Business loans include the primary, secondary and tertiary sector. Household loans, on the other hand, are mostly mortgage (30%) and car loans (10%).

Save Non-oil and Gas Trade Balance

Exports and imports account for 20% and 15% of Indonesia's GDP, respectively. Changes in trade have impact on the country's economic growth.

Save Non-oil and Gas Exports by Country (YoY)

Exports and imports account for 20% and 18% of Indonesia's GDP, respectively.

Indonesia's major export partners in 2019 are:
ASEAN (20%)
China (15%)
USA (10%)
Japan (5 ~ 10%)
India (5 ~ 10%)

Save Non-oil and Gas Imports by Country (YoY)

Exports and imports account for 20% and 18% of Indonesia's GDP, respectively.

Indonesia's major import partners in 2019 are:
China (25 ~ 30%)
ASEAN (15 ~ 20%)
Japan (5 ~ 10%)
USA (3 ~ 5%)

Save Retail Sales vs. Car Sales

Consumption accounts for 55% of Indonesian GDP because of its huge population of 264 million people. Retail sales is an important indicator for private consumption, which affects GDP growth greatly. Sales of expensive durable goods like cars tend to fluctuate when the economic conditions are unstable, so sales of cars are indicative of overall consumption.

Save Unemployment Rate

Unemployment rate= employed / (employed + unemployed)

Companies stop hiring or slash employment because the economy is shrinking. An increase in unemployed persons will lead to decrease in household income and consumption. Consumption accounts for 55% of GDP, a decrease in which will bring economic growth down.

Save Consumer Price Index

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of inflation and economic conditions. Core CPI is CPI excluding food and energy which have greater fluctuations in prices and reflects a more real economic conditions in the household. Core CPI also prevents price fluctuations caused by temporary supply-demand factors.

There are 2 types of inflation:
1. Demand-pull inflation is caused by undersupply. When the economy grows, price rises.
2. Cost-push inflation occurs when producing costs of goods increase.

Save Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

IHS Markit surveys purchasing managers from manufacturers on the business conditions every month. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is composed of 5 indices (weight):
New orders (30%)
Output (25%)
Employment (20%)
Supplier's delivery times (15%)
Stocks of purchases (10%)
A reading above 50 suggests optimism, while a reading below 50 suggests pessimism.

Save OECD Composite Leading Indicator: Indonesia

Indonesian Economic Leading Index is composed of:
IDX composite index
Central Bank Discount rate
IDR/USD exchange rate
Wholesale Price Index
Consumer confidence index
Production of paper and paper products
Tourist arrivals

Save Business Confidence vs. Consumer Confidence

Business Confidence Index is a quarterly survey showing how local companies see the economy.
Consumer Confidence Index is a monthly survey showing how people see the economy. Consumption accounts for 55% of GDP.

Save Residential Property Price Index

The construction sector accounts for 10% of GDP. Rising house price supports construction and economic growth.

Save USD/IDR vs. WTI Crude Oil Futures Price

Indonesia has abundant natural resources and vast territory. Fossil fuel accounts for a quarter of exports.
When oil price rises, exports grow, bringing Rupiah up.

*Indonesia is not a member state of OPEC
The country joined OPEC twice in 1962 and 2016 and backed out again in the end of 2016.

Save Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index

Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index, or JC Index, opened on the 10th of August in 1982, is a market cap-weighted index of listed companies in the Jakarta Stock Exchange.

Save OECD Composite Leading Indicator vs. JC Index

OECD leading index leads JCI by 3 to 5 months. When OECD leading index YoY is above 0, JCI is likely to rise.

Save Consumer Confidence vs. JC Index

Consumption accounts for 55% of GDP so it plays an important role in accelerating economic growth. High consumer confidence supports the stock market, and vice versa.

*2010 was an exception because consumer confidence boosted in the previous year.

Save Indonesia USD/IDR vs. JCI

US Dollar to Rupiah exchange rate represents fund flow between the US and Indonesia. When funds move into Indonesia, Rupiah rises (moving down in the chart).

Save Indonesia Government Bond Yield