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Save MM Cotton Fundamental Index

MMFI for cotton is an integral index created by MacroMicro for cotton futures fundamentals. When it goes up, it means the fundamentals of cotton are looking good.

* Different MMFIs can't be put in comparison with each other.

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Latest Stats
  • MM Cotton Fundamental Index(L)
    2022-07
    0.15
  • NYBOT Cotton Futures Price(R)
    2022-08-17
    116.97
Source
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Save Global Cotton Supply and Demand

Supply:
India, China, US and Brazil are the top 4 cotton producers. Their total production accounts for 70% to 75% of global production, while US and Brazil account for 50%. China's cotton is grown mainly to meet domestic needs.

Demand:
China, Bangladesh and Vietnam have a large textile industry and therefore large demand for cotton. If China's production of cotton falls short, global supply tightens as China's importing needs grow.

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Latest Stats
  • Global Cotton Supply (L)
    2023
    201.73m
  • Global Cotton Demand (L)
    2023
    119.09m
  • Global Cotton Supply (YoY, R)
    2023
    -1.15%
  • Global Cotton Demand (YoY, R)
    2023
    -0.77%
Source
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Save World Cotton Stocks to Use Ratio

Ending stocks
/ demand
= Stocks-to-use ratio

Stocks/use ratio forecasts the number of years that cotton supply will be sufficient under current demand pattern. "Stocks" refer to the projected ending stocks at the end of April.

US + Brazil + India's ending stocks
/ global demand
= big exporters' stocks to use ratio

Stocks to use ratio shares a negative correlation with price. High demand (low S/U ratio) leads to an increase in price. China has increased cotton stocks since 2011 for three years in a row, so global cotton stocks surged. To better reflect stocks/use ratio, we use main exporters' stocks.

*USDA releases WASDE report between the 9th to the 12th every month forecasting supply and demand of crops for the year ending on April 30th.
*The report includes revisions for the last two years.

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Latest Stats
  • World Cotton Stocks to Use Ratio (L)
    2023
    69.50%
  • Big Exporters' Stocks to Use Ratio (L)
    2023
    19.62%
  • ICE Cotton No.2 Futures Price (R)
    2022-08-17
    116.97
Source
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Save World Cotton Stocks to Use Ratio (Monthly)

Ending stocks
/ demand
= Stocks-to-use ratio

Stocks/use ratio forecasts the number of years that wheat supply will be sufficient under current demand pattern. "Stocks" refer to the projected ending stocks at the end of April.

US is the largest exporter of cotton, whose stocks have great impact on cotton prices.

Stocks to use ratio shares a negative correlation with price. High demand (low S/U ratio) could lead to an increase in price.

*USDA releases WASDE report between the 9th to the 12th every month forecasting supply and demand of crops for the year ending on April 30th.
*The report includes revisions for the last two years.

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Latest Stats
  • World Cotton S/U Ratio (Monthly Change, L)
    2022-08
    69.50%
  • US Cotton S/U Ratio (Monthly Change, L)
    2022-08
    12.59%
  • NYBOT Cotton Futures Price (R)
    2022-08-17
    116.97
Source
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Save Americas Cotton Supply

US and Brazil are the main producer and exporter in America. Their total exporting volume of cotton accounts for 30% and 20% of global exports of cotton, respectively. Collectively, they are responsible for 25% to 30% of world's cotton production. When their production declines, price could rise.

Weather is a key factor in crop production. April is the growing season for cotton in the United States. Extreme weather conditions could have its toll on cotton production around January and February.

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Latest Stats
  • US Cotton Supply (L)
    2023
    16.08m
  • Brazil Cotton Supply (L)
    2023
    25.23m
  • US Cotton Supply (YoY, R)
    2023
    -22.26%
  • Brazil Cotton Supply (YoY, R)
    2023
    9.02%
Source
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Save Asia Cotton Supply

China and India are the main producer and exporter in Asia. Their total production accounts for 50% to 60% of global production. However, China's cotton is almost all used to meet domestic demand. India's exporting volume of cotton accounts for 10% to 15% of world's cotton exports. India also has a huge demand for cotton. So when their production declines, their importing needs will rise, which could lead to a spike in price.

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Latest Stats
  • China Cotton Supply (L)
    2023
    73.76m
  • India Cotton Supply (L)
    2023
    37.54m
  • China Cotton Supply (YoY, R)
    2023
    -0.79%
  • India Cotton Supply (YoY, R)
    2023
    0.27%
Source
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Save World Cotton Supply by Exports

US's cotton exports account for 30% to 35% of total cotton exports in the world, while Brazil accounts for another 20% to 25%. Their exports have short-term impact on cotton price.

When Brazil cotton increases, US cotton price could decline. When US cotton exports outgrow Brazil cotton exports, US cotton price could rise.

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Latest Stats
  • Value of US Cotton Exports (YoY, L)
    2022-06
    91.65%
  • Value of Brazil Cotton Exports (YoY, L)
    2022-07
    -52.82%
  • NYBOT Cotton Futures Price (R)
    2022-08-17
    116.97
Source
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Save World Demand by Country

Top 5 cotton-consuming countries are China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam. Their total demand/consumption of cotton account for around 70% to 80% of total global demand. China alone accounts for 30% to 35%; India 25% to 30%.

These countries, except India, are also big cotton importers, who are responsible for about 70% of world's cotton imports (China 20% to 25%, Bangladesh 15% to 18%, Vietnam 15%, Pakistan 10%.)

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Latest Stats
  • China Cotton Demand (L)
    2023
    37.55m
  • India Cotton Demand (L)
    2023
    28.70m
  • Pakistan Cotton Demand (L)
    2023
    10.95m
  • Bangladesh Cotton Demand (L)
    2023
    8.50m
  • Vietnam Cotton Demand (L)
    2023
    6.90m
  • China Cotton Demand (YoY, R)
    2023
    1.35%
  • India Cotton Demand (YoY, R)
    2023
    -1.96%
  • Pakistan Cotton Demand (YoY, R)
    2023
    1.83%
  • Bangladesh Cotton Demand (YoY, R)
    2023
    1.18%
  • Vietnam Cotton Demand (YoY, R)
    2023
    2.90%
Source
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Save SOI Index vs. Cotton Futures Price

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a measure for the difference in air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. SOI higher than 7 means La Nina; SOI lower than -7 means El Nino. Heat and drought are harmful for cotton production.

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Latest Stats
  • Southern Oscillation Index (L)
    2022-07
    8.70
  • NYBOT Cotton Futures Price (R)
    2022-08-17
    116.97
Source
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Save Cotton Futures Managed Fund Long-Short Ratio vs. Price

Long positions by managed funds
/ short positions by managed funds
= Ratio of long to short

The long-to-short ratio represents market sentiment to some degree. When the ratio gets bigger, institutional investors are going long on cotton futures. When the ratio reaches an all-time high or low, market sentiment can be overly optimistic or pessimistic, which could bring about a reversal in price.

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Latest Stats
  • Cotton Futures Long-to-Short Ratio (L)
    2022 W32
    3.39
  • ICE Cotton No. 2 Futures Price (R)
    2022-08-17
    116.97
Source
Feedback

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