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Save Taiwan Leading Economic Index

Taiwanese leading economic index is gathered by National Development Council, consisting of 7 economic indicators: diffusion index of export orders, real monetary aggregates M1B, TAIEX average closing price, net accession rate of employees on payrolls of industry and services, new housing construction starts, real imports of semiconductor equipment, and the TIER manufacturing sector composite indicator.

Leading economic index usually reverses 2 to 6 months ahead of TAIEX does.
When TW LEI is over 100, Taiwanese stock market is in good shape.
When TW LEI is below 100, the stock market is unsteady.

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Latest Stats
  • Taiwan Leading Economic Index (L)
    2020-11
    107.45
  • Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (R)
    2021-01-15
    15,616.39
Source
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Save Taiwan Lagging / Leading Economic Indicators vs. TAIEX

This chart shows the quotient of lagging and leading indicators. It's used to predict the reversal point of TAIEX, and it goes in the opposite direction to that of TAIEX. Quotient of lagging divided by leading indicators benchmarks at 1; investors should be cautious when the result is greater than 1.

When the result rises, TAIEX usually falls.
*2010, 2011, and 2012 are exceptions

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Latest Stats
  • Taiwan Lagging Index / Leading Index (L)
    2020-11
    0.91
  • Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (R)
    2021-01-15
    15,616.39
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The US ETFs 1 month 3 month Year to date
iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF (EWT) 10.19% 25.2% 7.72%

Save Taiwan PMI: Six-month Outlook

Six-month manufacturing outlook is a subindex under Taiwan PMI, compiled by National Development Council (NDC). It incorporates five other subindices including new orders, production, employment, inventories, and supplier deliveries.

The outlook is highly relevant to the movement of TAIEX. When it's above 50, the stocks might rise.

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Latest Stats
  • Taiwan PMI Six-month Outlook (L)
    2020-12
    69.90
  • Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (R)
    2021-01-15
    15,616.39
Source
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The US ETFs 1 month 3 month Year to date
iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF (EWT) 10.19% 25.2% 7.72%

Save Taiwan M1B - M2 (YoY)

M1B makes up funds people possess and can utilize at their disposal. M2 is the sum of M1B and the funds circulating in the market and has lower liquidity than M1B.

M1A = net currency + check deposits + demand deposits
M1B = M1A + demand saving deposits
M2 = M1B + reserve currency
*reserve currency includes time deposits, postal savings, and forex savings

A result greater than 1 means circulating funds are active and outgrow time deposits.
During the past few cycles, (M1B - M2) leads 3 to 6 months ahead of TAIEX.

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Latest Stats
  • Taiwan M1B - M2 (Daily Average, YoY, L)
    2020-11
    6.70%
  • Taiwan M2 (YoY)
    2020-11
    7.60%
  • Taiwan M1B (YoY)
    2020-11
    14.30%
  • TSEC weighted index（R）
    2021-01-15
    15,616.39
Source
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The US ETFs 1 month 3 month Year to date
iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF (EWT) 10.19% 25.2% 7.72%
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Save US SEMI Billings vs. TAIEX

SEMI billings are the sales amount of semiconductors shipped from North America. Most of the IC products and chips are designed in North America and shipped to other countries for further development. And Taiwan's edges are semiconductor foundry and package testing, so SEMI billings are usually associated with TAIEX.

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  • US-Semiconductor Equipment Billings (YoY, L)
    2020-11
    2,648.20m
  • Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (R)
    2021-01-15
    15,616.39
Source
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The US ETFs 1 month 3 month Year to date
iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF (EWT) 10.19% 25.2% 7.72%

Save US Core Capital Goods New Orders vs. TAIEX

Core capital goods are capital goods excluding defense goods and aircrafts. Its new orders can represent companies' future investment expenditures and domestic manufacturing conditions. It also has a positive correlation with TAIEX. In 1994, 1998, 2006, and 2010, new orders of US core capital goods reversed shortly before TAIEX did, too.

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Latest Stats
  • US Core Capital Goods New Orders (SA, YoY)
    2020-11
    6.76%
  • Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (R)
    2021-01-15
    15,616.39
Source
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The US ETFs 1 month 3 month Year to date
iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF (EWT) 10.19% 25.2% 7.72%

Save Open Interest of Foreign Investors vs. TAIEX

This chart shows the open interest from foreign investors in the Taiwanese futures market. It's indicative of TAIEX becasue before pouring huge funds into Taiwanese stock market, foreign investors buy in TAIEX futures, which follows the rise and fall of TAIEX, so they can generate profits from the futures market.

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Latest Stats
  • Net Positions on Open Interest Foreign Investors (L)
    2021-01-15
    -24,852.00
  • Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (R)
    2021-01-15
    15,616.39
Source
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iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF (EWT) 10.19% 25.2% 7.72%

Save Taiwan Put/call Open Interest Ratio

Options put / call ratio = ( put / call -1 ) * 100%

Option selling yields limited profits but involves unlimited risks. In Taiwan's options market, big investors such as institutional legal persons are usually buyers because they can take greater risks and have better judgement on market trends than individual investors do. Individual investors are usually buyers.

If the ratio comes out greater than 0, put net positions are bigger than call net positions and TAIEX rises.

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Latest Stats
  • Taiwan Put/call Open Interest Ratio (L)
    2021-01-15
    36.06
  • Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (R)
    2021-01-15
    15,616.39
Source
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Save Number of Effective Trading Account

Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) releases monthly the number of effective trading account in the secondary market. It shows the level of confidence the investors have towards the stock market, and it also shows signs of overheating, if any.

Under 1 million effective trading accounts mean the stock market has most likely reached a bottom and will rebound. Over 2 million effective trading accounts suggest the stock market is overheating and will fall.

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Latest Stats
  • Number of Effective Trading Account (R)
    2020-12
    3,016,699.00
  • Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (L)
    2021-01-15
    15,616.39
Source
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The US ETFs 1 month 3 month Year to date
iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF (EWT) 10.19% 25.2% 7.72%

Save TAIEX vs. NTD

TAIEX and New Taiwan dollar usually move in the opposite directions because the exchange rate of Taiwanese dollars are highly associated with the inflow of foreign investment, and most of the inflow of foreign investment pour into the stock market.

FI enters → NTD appreciates → TAIEX rises
FI exits → NTD depreciates → TAIEX falls

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Latest Stats
  • Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (L)
    2021-01-15
    15,616.39
  • USD/NTD (R)
    2021-01-15
    27.98
Source
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