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Save MM Global Recession Probability

Recession probability is based on various economic indices including consumption, employment, manufacturing production, finance and commodity. 50% is the benchmark; when the probability exceeds 50%, the global economy including the US is likely to plunge into recession, like in 2000 and 2008. However, we've also seen regional recession that didn't really affect America in 2011 and 2015.

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Latest Stats
  • MM Global Recession Probability
    2022-08
    31.28%
Source
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Save US Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. GDPNow has frequent updates as it has a considerable amount of variables, including:
ISM manufacturing index, construction spending, M3-2 manufacturing, light vehicle sales, international trade, ISM non-manufacturing index, employment situation, wholesale trade, PPI, CPI, monthly Treasury statement, import/export prices, retail trade, industrial production, housing starts, existing-home sales, new-home sales, PCE, etc.

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Latest Stats
  • 2021 Q3
    2021-10-28
    2.02%
  • 2021 Q4
    2022-01-27
    6.89%
  • 2022 Q1
    2022-04-28
    -1.41%
  • 2022 Q2
    2022-07-28
    -0.93%
  • 2022 Q3
    2022-08-10
    2.45%
Source
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Save 2022 Fed Interest Rates Projections at Yearend

CME Group releases its daily projections of Fed's interest rates at the end of the year. It reveals the numbers of rate raises in the year.

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  • CME FedWatch-probability- 2.25 - 2.50 (2022)
    2022-08-15
    0.00%
  • CME FedWatch-probability- 2.50 - 2.75 (2022)
    2022-08-15
    0.00%
  • CME FedWatch-probability- 2.75 - 3.00 (2022)
    2022-08-15
    0.00%
  • CME FedWatch-probability- 3.00-3.25 (2022)
    2022-08-15
    5.80%
  • CME FedWatch-probability - 3.25-3.50 (2022)
    2022-08-15
    34.40%
  • CME FedWatch-probability - 3.50-3.75 (2022)
    2022-08-15
    44.20%
  • CME FedWatch-probability - 3.75 - 4.00 (2022)
    2022-08-15
    15.60%
  • CME FedWatch-probability - 4.00 - 4.25 (2022)
    2022-08-15
    0.00%
Source
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Save US Treasury Yield Spread

Long-term bond yield is usually higher than short-term bond yield due to its greater risks over the long term. In simple words, long-term yields could be seen as a stack of short-term yield, inflation forecast, and economic outlook. Short-term yields may be indicative of current market liquidity.

Short-term bond yield
+ inflation expectations
+ economic outlook
= long-term bond yield

The difference between 30- and 10-year bond yield may reflect inflation expectations over the long-term;

10- and 2-year bond yield spread, on the other hand, may reflect the direction of Fed's interest rate decision;

10- and 3-month bond yield spread may reflect current market liquidity.

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Latest Stats
  • US 10Y & 2Y Bond Yield Spread
    2022-08-15
    -0.40%
  • US 30Y & 10Y Bond Yield Spread
    2022-08-15
    0.31%
  • US 10Y & 3M Bond Yield Spread
    0.00%
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Save US Credit Spread vs. S&P 500

MM CCC credit spread = Merrill Lynch CCC-grade high-yield bond yield - US 10-year government bond yield (risk-free interest rate)
It reflects the market's expectations for future corporate default risk.

High-yield bonds are bonds issued by companies with low credit ratings. They have higher credit risk, so the yield will be higher than that of general investment-grade bonds. When the issuer's business is in good condition, the future cash flow will grow and the risk of bankruptcy will decrease. The yield will consequently lower. Possessing such bonds is like trading stocks, investors need to weigh on expectations for the corporate's business outlook.

The credit risk spread goes the opposite direction to that of the stock market, and the credit risk spread is less volatile than the stock market, thus making it easier for investors to grasp the overall condition of the financial market.

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Latest Stats
  • US Credit Spread
    2022-08-12
    9.94%
  • S&P 500
    2022-08-15
    4,297.14
Source
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Save United States-Absolute Value of Upstream and Downstream Inventory

美國普查局 United States Census Bureau 每月皆會公布前兩個月上游製造業、中游躉物業與下游零售業的庫存指數，透過庫存金額能了解製造業補庫存的傳遞情形，通常都能看到上游端製造業先行回到庫存水位，並最後在終端零售業見庫存回升。

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Latest Stats
  • US-Manufacturers Inventories
    2022-05
    797,925.00m
  • US-Merchant Wholesalers Inventories
    2022-05
    878,552.00m
  • US-Retailers Inventorries
    2022-05
    705,405.00m
Source
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Save China Manufacturing PMI

China's PMI is composed of new orders index (20%), production index (25%), employment index (20%), supplier delivery index (15%) and raw materials inventory index (10%). Benchmark reading of PMI is 50, above which suggests business expansion in the industry. There are two PMI data in China, one of which is official and the other is published by Caixin. The former represents large enterprises while the latter represents private enterprises.

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Latest Stats
  • Caixin Manufacturing PMI
    2022-07
    50.40
  • China Official PMI
    2022-07
    49.00
Source
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Save China Bloomberg Credit Impulse Index

Credit impulse index = new loans / GDP
Credit impulse index measures the credit cycle in a market. When the economy recovers, the index rises.

China’s credit impulse has less to do with GDP, though. China usually uses property to stimulate demand when the economy downtrends, so new loans are usually backed by real estate. But as China gains more and more control over its housing market, part of the new loans is starting turning to the stock market.

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Latest Stats
  • China Bloomberg Credit Impulse Index
    2022-06
    26.75
  • China Housing Price (YoY)
    2022-07
    -0.90%
  • China - Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index
    2022-08-15
    4,185.68
Source
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Save Drewry World Container Index

Drewry tracks the freight costs of 40-foot container via eight major routes, including spot rates and short-term contract rates.

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Latest Stats
  • Drwery World Container Index - Composite
    2022 W32
    6,430.07
  • Drwery World Container Index - Shanghai to Rotterdam
    2022 W32
    8,833.00
  • Drwery World Container Index - Shanghai to Genova
    2022 W32
    8,779.00
  • Drwery World Container Index - Shanghai to Los Angeles
    2022 W32
    6,834.00
  • Drwery World Container Index - Shanghai to New York
    2022 W32
    9,749.00
  • Drwery World Container Index - Rotterdam to Shanghai
    2022 W32
    1,195.00
  • Drwery World Container Index - Los Angeles to Shanghai
    2022 W32
    1,258.00
  • Drwery World Container Index - New York to Rotterdam
    2022 W32
    1,290.00
  • Drwery World Container Index - Rotterdam to New York
    2022 W32
    6,945.00
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