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Save US House Vacancy Rate

US Census Bureau releases quarterly rented/sold house vacancy rate. Vacancy rate is widely used by the US government, builders, real estate brokers, and economic institutions.

Vacancy rate represents the ratio of vacant houses to all houses throughout out the year, so the lower it gets, the better the housing market will be.

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Latest Stats
  • US Homeowner Vacancy Rate
    2021 Q3
    0.90%
  • US Rental Vacancy Rate
    2021 Q3
    5.80%
Source
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Save China Manufacturing PMI

China's PMI is composed of new orders index (20%), production index (25%), employment index (20%), supplier delivery index (15%) and raw materials inventory index (10%). Benchmark reading of PMI is 50, above which suggests business expansion in the industry. There are two PMI data in China, one of which is official and the other is published by Caixin. The former represents large enterprises while the latter represents private enterprises.

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Latest Stats
  • Caixin Manufacturing PMI
    2021-12
    50.90
  • China Official PMI
    2021-12
    50.30
Source
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Save US SEMI Billings Report

SEMI billings report reports on North America-based semiconductor equipment manufacturer. SEMI billings affects tech stocks around the world as well as major Asian economies that export electronics.

*SEMI stopped releasing book-to-bill ratio and order amount from 2017 on.

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Latest Stats
  • US Semiconductor Equipment Billings (L)
    2021-11
    3,913.90m
  • US Semiconductor Equipment Billings (YoY, R)
    2021-11
    3,913.90m
  • The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX)
    2022-01-20
    3,494.75
Source
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Save Global Flight Tracking

The number of daily flights is calculated by Flightradar counting the number of flights on the website.

Commercial flights: Commercial passenger flights + cargo flights + charter flights + some business jet flights.
Total flights: Commercial flights above + rest of business jet flights + private flights + gliders + most helicopter flights + most ambulance flights + government flights + some military flights + drones

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Latest Stats
  • Global Flight Tracking
    2022-01-20
    169,090.00
  • Global Flight Tracking: Commercial Flights
    2022-01-20
    89,405.00
Source
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Save 2022 Fed Interest Rates Projections at Yearend

CME Group releases its daily projections of Fed's interest rates at the end of the year. It reveals the numbers of rate cuts in the year.

0.00% to 0.25% means Fed kept rates unchanged
0.25% to 0.50% means Fed raised rates by 25 bps
0.50% to 0.75% means Fed raised rates by 50 bps
0.75% to 1.00% means Fed raised rates by 75 bps

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Latest Stats
  • Unchanged
    2022-01-20
    0.02%
  • +0.25%
    2022-01-20
    0.67%
  • +0.5%
    2022-01-20
    5.99%
  • +0.75%
    2022-01-20
    19.83%
  • CME FedWatch-probability- 1.00 - 1.25 (2022)
    2022-01-20
    31.94%
  • CME FedWatch-probability- 1.25 - 1.50 (2022)
    2022-01-20
    27.18%
Source
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Save US Fed Excess Reserves (Yearly Change) vs. DXY Index

Fed's excess reserves have a highly negative correlation with the DXY index. (Y-axis is reversed for excess reserves in this chart.)

Excess reserves can be seen as an indicator for USD liquidity, with which it has a negative correlation. When Fed began to cut rates, implement open market operations, or purchase short-term debts, liquidity increases.

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Latest Stats
  • Fed's Excess Reserves (Yearly Change, L)
    2021-11
    4,180.60b
  • US Dollar Index (R)
    2022-01-21
    95.54
Source
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Save US Service minus Manufacture vs. DXY Index

Manufacturing output reflects oversea demand; service output reflects domestic demand. The difference between the two industries shows a correlation with the US dollar.

We use "ISM NMI" to represent service and "ISM PMI's new orders" for manufacture. When the difference widens, service expands faster than manufacture.

The US economy relies on consumption and service output, while the emerging market is driven by manufacturing production. So when service outgrows manufacture, investment shifts to the US, causing US dollar to strengthen. When manufacture outgrows service, investment outflows the US.

Blue bar grows -> USD appreciates
Blue bar declines -> USD depreciates

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Latest Stats
  • US Service minus Manufacture(L)
    0.00
  • US Dollar Index(R)
    2022-01-21
    95.54
Source
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Save US 10-year Bond Yield - 2-year Bond Yield

Long-term bond yield reflects inflation. Short-term bond yields are tools used to predict Fed's interest rate policy. Spread between the two represents four cycles of an economy.

1. Growth
Short--term yield rises as interest rates rise. Spread narrows.

2. Slow growth
Central bank raises interest rates faster and short-term yield exceeds long-term yield. Spread turns negative.

3. Recession
High interest rates lead to more defaults. Inflation caps consumption. Central bank lowers interest rate to stimulate the economy and short-term yield falls. Spread widens.

4. Recovery
Central bank continues easing. Spread remains wide and yield curve remains steep.

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Latest Stats
  • US 10-Year Bond Yield (L)
    2022-01-21
    1.76%
  • US 2-Year Bond Yield (L)
    2022-01-21
    1.00%
  • US 10-year Bond Yield - 2-year Bond Yield (R)
    2022-01-20
    0.75%
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Save US Credit Spread vs. S&P 500

MM CCC credit spread = Merrill Lynch CCC-grade high-yield bond yield - US 10-year government bond yield (risk-free interest rate)
It reflects the market's expectations for future corporate default risk.

High-yield bonds are bonds issued by companies with low credit ratings. They have higher credit risk, so the yield will be higher than that of general investment-grade bonds. When the issuer's business is in good condition, the future cash flow will grow and the risk of bankruptcy will decrease. The yield will consequently lower. Possessing such bonds is like trading stocks, investors need to weigh on expectations for the corporate's business outlook.

The credit risk spread goes the opposite direction to that of the stock market, and the credit risk spread is less volatile than the stock market, thus making it easier for investors to grasp the overall condition of the financial market.

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Latest Stats
  • US Credit Spread
    2022-01-19
    6.31%
  • S&P 500
    2022-01-20
    4,482.73
Source
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