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Save US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

CPI is a common yet important indicator for inflation and the Central bank makes its monetary decisions based on CPI.

Core CPI eliminates food and energy price from CPI, removes price volatilities caused from international supply and demand swings, and reflects more profoundly the household purchasing activities.

Fed's main goals are:
1. Maximize employment
2. Stabilize consumer prices
3. Moderate long-term interest rates
Fed has targeted inflation at 2%.

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Latest Stats
  • US Consumer Price Index (SA, YoY)
    2021-03
    2.60%
  • US Core Consumer Price Index (SA, YoY)
    2021-03
    1.60%
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Save CPI: Shelter

Weighted shelter takes up 32.77% of CPI, of which 7.8% is rent and 23.68% is private housing (split non-recurring cost of buying real estate into multiple rents, in order to be included in CPI). Shelter weight is high compared to other components of CPI and the market watchers have always kept their eyes on shelter.

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Latest Stats
  • US Consumer Price Index: Shelter (SA, YoY)
    2021-03
    1.70%
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Save US CPI Items (MoM)

CPI components are food, shelter (including rent), apparel, transportation (including energy commodity), medical care, recreation, education and communication, and energy.

CPI monthly growth fluctuates due to seasonal influences, such as international oil price, so MoM doesn't reflect the real inflation movement.

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Latest Stats
  • Food & Beverage
    2021-03
    0.13%
  • Shelter
    2021-03
    0.32%
  • Apparel
    2021-03
    -0.28%
  • Transportation Services
    2021-03
    2.68%
  • Medical Care
    2021-03
    0.13%
  • Recreation
    2021-03
    0.43%
  • Education & Communication
    2021-03
    -0.10%
  • Energy
    2021-03
    5.00%
Source
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Save US CPI Items (YoY)

CPI components are food, shelter (including rent), apparel, transportation (including energy commodity), medical care, recreation, education and communication, and energy.

CPI growth is mostly supported by energy, housing and transportation (eg. car insurance.)

Yearly growth is based on the same period last year. It removes part of seasonal influences and reflects more steadily the real movement of prices. Therefore market watchers usually keep their eyes on YoY rather than MoM.

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Latest Stats
  • Food & Beverage
    2021-03
    3.36%
  • Shelter
    2021-03
    2.13%
  • Apparel
    2021-03
    -2.46%
  • Transportation Services
    2021-03
    5.93%
  • Medical Care
    2021-03
    1.77%
  • Recreation
    2021-03
    1.06%
  • Education & Communication
    2021-03
    1.50%
  • Energy
    2021-03
    13.25%
Source
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Save US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index

PCE is one of the key factors in Fed's decisions on monetary policy. Historically, Fed tends to tighten when PCE reaches over 2%.

Among all components, medical care has heavier weight and maintains to grow. Housing price also remains high. While the highlight here in PCE price index is transportation (including energy), which in recent years is affected by international oil price fluctuations.

Main components of PCE price index are: medical care (20.86%), housing including energy (17.37%), recreation (11.23%), transportation including energy (9.02%), food and beverages (7.18%), financial services (6.33%). Compared with CPI, PCE reflects more down-to-earth inflation growth because housing rentals has smaller weights.

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Latest Stats
  • US PCE Price Index (SA, YoY)
    2021-02
    1.55%
  • US Core PCE Price Index (SA, YoY)
    2021-02
    1.41%
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Save US Price Index

PPI (Producer Price Index) can be seen as production cost index and usually leads ahead of CPI. Imported goods price is also the main economic indicator on Fed's watchlist besides CPI, because it generally fluctuates more than exported goods price and affects inflation. However, since the US became the largest oil-producing country in August 2018, imported goods price now has less influence on inflation.

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Latest Stats
  • US Producer Price Index (SA, YoY)
    2021-03
    4.20%
  • US Import Price Index (NSA, YoY)
    2021-03
    6.92%
  • US Export Price Index (NSA, YoY)
    2021-03
    9.14%
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Save US Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast: CPI

Nowcast is an estimate of inflation at present, using daily oil price, weekly gasoline retail price, and monthly consumer price. Official PCE and CPI are published by month; Nowcast offers a more timely insight to inflation.

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Latest Stats
  • Consumer Price Index (SA, YoY)
    2021-03
    2.60%
  • Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)
    2021-03
    1.60%
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast: CPI (YoY)
    2021-04
    3.46%
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast: Core CPI (YoY)
    2021-04
    2.18%
Source
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Save US Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast: PCE

Nowcast is an estimate of inflation at present, using daily oil price, weekly gasoline retail price, and monthly consumer price. Official PCE and CPI are published by month; Nowcast offers a more timely insight to inflation.

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Latest Stats
  • US PCE Price Index (YoY)
    2021-02
    1.55%
  • US Core PCE Price Index (YoY)
    2021-02
    1.41%
  • US Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast: PCE (YoY)
    2021-04
    2.94%
  • US Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast: Core PCE (YoY)
    2021-04
    2.37%
Source
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Save US UMich Inflation Expectations

Inflation outlook is an important indicator of whether domestic demand consumption is recovering. In addition to querying the financial status, economic outlook and consumption willingness of respondents for compiling confidence index (MiDai consumer confidence), the University of Michigan also Other questions (see notes) will be asked to investigate the respondents' views on inflation in the next year and five years.

In addition to the respondents' feedback on the issues, Mi’ta will also include the respondents’ actual income changes during the expected period as a parameter when preparing the expected inflation, in order to more accurately meet the actual inflation trend in the future.

Note: Question 1. Do you think that the overall price will rise, fall or remain unchanged in the next year/five years? ; Question 2. What percentage do you think the overall price will increase/decrease in the next year/five years?

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Latest Stats
  • US UMich Inflation Expectations for Next 12M
    2021-03
    3.10%
  • US UMich Inflation Expectations for Next 5Y
    2021-03
    2.70%
Source
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Save US ISM PMI Price vs. CPI (YoY)

ISM PMI price index represents purchasing managers' outlook for future raw material price. Increasing raw material price will up the cost of production which will eventually be transferred onto clients and bring up inflation. PMI price index is, therefore, the leading indicator for CPI.

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Latest Stats
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Raw Material Price (L)
    2021-03
    85.60
  • US CPI (SA, YoY) (R)
    2021-03
    2.60%
Source
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Save US CPI: Shelter vs. Rental Vacancy Rate

Rental vacancy rate has fallen during the third quarter in 2017. It shows that Fed's rate hikes were gradually taking effect on people's purchasing power of housing and the sales of housing. It stimulated demand for rental housing and prices of rental, especially in the urban area. High rentals help CPI to grow.

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Latest Stats
  • US CPI: Shelter (YoY)
    2021-03
    1.70%
  • US Rental Vacancy Rate
    2020 Q4
    6.50%
Source
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Save US CPI vs. TIP/TLT

TIP/TLT reflects market's expectations of inflation rate. Inflation rises as the result increases.

iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIPS) tracks Barclays US TIPS Bond Index, which reflects the performance of US Treasury Inflation Protected securities. Its principal and coupon increase/decrease according to the latest CPI.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tracks ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index and reflects the performance of US long-term bonds. Its interest devalues due to inflation.

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Latest Stats
  • US Consumer Price Index (SA, YoY)
    2021-03
    2.60%
  • iShares 美國抗通膨債券 ETF (TIP) ÷ iShares 20年期以上美國公債ETF (TLT)
    0.00
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