Eurozone PMI Overview

The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for April reported a figure of 48.7, surpassing the forecast of 47.4 and marking the highest level since January 2023. Despite this improvement, the index remains below the 50 mark, indicating contraction, a trend that has persisted since June 2022. Meanwhile, the Eurozone Services PMI fell to 49.7, below the expected 50.4, and down from the previous 51.0. The Eurozone Composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, recorded a decline to 50.1 from 50.9.

European Countries PMI Details

In Germany, the Manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 48.0 from 48.3, while the Services PMI saw a more significant drop to 48.8 from 50.9. France's Manufacturing PMI also edged down to 48.2 from 48.5. The Services PMI in France experienced a notable decline, falling to 46.8 from 47.9. These figures indicate ongoing challenges in the services sector across major European economies, contrasting with a modest improvement in manufacturing.

Highlight

The global Economic Expectation Index for April has shown a decline, reaching 2.39%, down from the previous 2.46%. This marks the lowest level since February 2024.

Components

• US: The index fell to 1.81% from 1.93%, marking the lowest level since January 2024.
• Eurozone: The index decreased to 0.93% from 0.98%, reaching the lowest level since April 2024.
• Germany: The index rose to 0.57% from 0.44%.
• Japan: The index dropped to 0.93% from 1.12%.
• China: The index slightly decreased to 4.4% from 4.42%, the lowest since May 2020.
• France: The index fell to 0.67% from 0.8%.
• Australia: The index increased slightly to 2.13% from 2.1%.
• India: The index rose marginally to 6.37% from 6.35%.
• Indonesia: The index decreased slightly to 5.0% from 5.03%.
• South Korea: The index fell to 1.57% from 1.68%.
• Singapore: The index decreased to 2.43% from 2.52%.
• Malaysia: The index slightly decreased to 4.65% from 4.68%.

Retail Sales Overview

US retail sales rose by 1.43% MoM in March, surpassing the forecast of 1.3% and marking the highest level since January 2023. On a YoY basis, retail sales increased by 4.6%, the highest since December 2023.

Control Group Performance

The retail sales control group, which excludes more volatile categories, showed a MoM increase of 0.37%, falling short of the expected 0.6%. On a YoY basis, the control group rose by 4.56%, slightly down from the previous 5.09%.

Components Details

• Motor Vehicle sales surged by 8.8% YoY, up from 2.3% previously.
• Sporting Goods saw a turnaround with a 2.7% increase, compared to a previous decline of 3.3%.
• Building Material & Garden Equipment rose by 2.61%, reversing a previous decline of 0.81%.
• Electronics Appliance sales increased by 1.76%, up from a previous decline of 3.23%.
• Gasoline Stations experienced a decline of 4.35%, down from a previous increase of 0.1%.
• Clothing sales rose significantly by 5.42%, up from 1.72% previously.
• Nonstore Retailers saw a decline to 4.82% from a previous 8.25%.
• Food & Drinking Services increased by 4.78%, up from 2.7% previously.

Highlight

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March showed a notable decrease, with the year-over-year (YoY) CPI (NSA) coming in at 2.39%, down from the previous 2.82% and below the forecasted 2.5%. This marks the lowest level since February 2021. The month-over-month (MoM) CPI (SA) also declined to -0.05%, compared to the previous 0.22% and a forecast of 0.1%. Core CPI (NSA, YoY) dropped to 2.79%, the lowest since March 2021, from a previous 3.12% and a forecast of 3.0%. Core CPI (SA, MoM) fell to 0.06%, down from 0.23% and below the expected 0.3%.

Components

• Food & Beverages increased to 2.89% from 2.52%.
• Transportation Services saw a significant drop to 3.08% from 6.06%.
• Energy experienced a notable decline to -3.22% from -0.33%.
• Transportation fell to -0.83% from 1.58%.
• Medical Care Commodities decreased to 1.0% from 2.32%.
• Education & Communication rose to 0.56% from 0.33%.

Highlight

The latest data for the US Nonfarm Payrolls showed a significant increase, with a monthly change of 228.0k, surpassing both the previous month's 117.0k and the forecasted 137.0k. The unemployment rate also rose slightly to 4.2%, higher than both the previous and forecasted rate of 4.1%.

Components

In the main components of the monthly change, Retail Trade saw a substantial increase with 23.7k jobs added, compared to a decrease of 1.8k in the previous month. Transportation also experienced a notable rise, adding 22.9k jobs compared to 16.2k previously. Education & Health Services saw a significant increase with 77.0k jobs added, up from 60.0k. Leisure & Hospitality rebounded strongly with 43.0k jobs added, compared to a loss of 17.0k in the previous month. Government jobs increased by 19.0k, a notable rise from the previous 1.0k. Conversely, sectors like Mining & Logging and Wholesale Trade saw declines, with -2.0k jobs each, compared to previous increases. Manufacturing also showed a slowdown, adding only 1.0k jobs compared to 8.0k previously.

ISM Services PMI Overview

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March stood at 50.8, a decline from February's 53.5 and below the forecasted 53.0. This indicates a slower growth rate in the services sector than anticipated.

Main Components Details

• Business Activity: Increased to 55.9 from 54.4, showing a rise in activity.
• New Orders: Dropped to 50.4 from 52.2, indicating a slowdown in new demand.
• Employment: Fell significantly to 46.2 from 53.9, suggesting contraction in employment levels.
• Supplier Deliveries: Decreased to 50.6 from 53.4, reflecting faster delivery times.
• Prices: Decreased to 60.9 from 62.6, showing a reduction in price pressures.
• Backlog of Orders: Declined to 47.4 from 51.7, indicating a decrease in order backlogs.
• New Export Orders: Dropped sharply to 45.8 from 52.1, suggesting a decline in export demand.
• Imports: Rose to 52.6 from 49.6, indicating an increase in import activity.
• Inventory Sentiment: Increased to 56.6 from 54.7, reflecting a more positive sentiment towards inventory levels.

Highlight

The March ADP Nonfarm Employment report showed a significant increase in employment, with a monthly change of 155,000 jobs, surpassing the forecast of 118,000 and the previous month's figure of 84,000. In terms of salary growth, the median salary for job stayers saw a slight decrease to 4.6% YoY from 4.7% previously. Meanwhile, job changers experienced a more notable decline in median salary growth to 6.5% YoY, marking the lowest level since February 2021.

Components

In the breakdown of employment changes by sector, Professional and Business Services saw a substantial increase, adding 57,000 jobs compared to 22,000 in the previous month. Financial Activities also experienced a notable rise, with 38,000 jobs added, up from 24,000. Conversely, the Construction sector saw a significant drop, adding only 6,000 jobs compared to 26,000 previously. The Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector continued to shed jobs, losing 6,000, although this was an improvement from the 31,000 jobs lost in the prior month. Natural Resources and Mining experienced a further decline, losing 3,000 jobs compared to a loss of 1,000 previously.

February JOLTS Job Openings Report

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, revealing a decline in job openings. The latest statistics show that job openings fell to 7,568,000, down from the previous 7,762,000 and below the forecasted 7,690,000. The job openings rate also decreased to 4.5% from the previous 4.7%.

Components Details

The quits rate remained steady at 2.0%, indicating no change from the previous month. Similarly, the hires rate held constant at 3.4%, showing stability in hiring activity. The layoffs rate also remained unchanged at 1.1%, suggesting consistent layoff activity compared to the previous period.

ISM Manufacturing PMI Overview

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March fell to 49.0, down from February's 50.3 and below the forecasted 49.5. This marks a contraction in the manufacturing sector as the index falls below the neutral 50.0 mark.

Components Details

• New Orders: The index dropped to 45.2 from 48.6, indicating a decline in demand.
• Production: Fell to 48.3 from 50.7, showing a slowdown in manufacturing output.
• Employment: Decreased to 44.7 from 47.6, suggesting reduced hiring activity.
• Supplier Deliveries: Slightly decreased to 53.5 from 54.5, indicating slower delivery times.
• Inventories: Increased to 53.4 from 49.9, showing a buildup in stock levels.
• Price: Rose significantly to 69.4 from 62.4, reaching the highest level since June 2022, indicating rising input costs.
• Backlog of Orders: Declined to 44.5 from 46.8, reflecting a decrease in unfilled orders.
• Exports: Dropped to 49.6 from 51.4, indicating a contraction in export orders.
• Imports: Fell to 50.1 from 52.6, showing a slowdown in import activity.

Highlight

The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator for March recorded a value of 95.2, falling short of the forecasted 97.0 and down from the previous 96.3. This indicates a weaker than expected economic sentiment across the Eurozone.

Main Countries and Sectors Details

• Germany showed a slight increase with a latest statistic of 89.4, up from 89.1.
• France experienced a decline, with the latest figure at 96.4 compared to the previous 98.5.
• Greece improved to 107.7 from 106.9.
• Italy dropped to 97.6 from 99.6, marking its lowest level since November 2023.
• Spain rose to 103.4 from 102.3.

In sector-specific indicators: - The Industrial Confidence Indicator improved slightly to -10.6 from -11.0. - The Services Confidence Indicator fell to 2.4 from 5.1, reaching its lowest level since April 2021. - The Consumer Confidence Indicator decreased to -14.5 from -13.6. - The Retail Confidence Indicator declined to -6.8 from -5.1. - The Construction Confidence Indicator saw a marginal decrease to -3.4 from -3.3.

Eurozone PMI Overview

The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for March has risen to 48.7, surpassing the forecast of 48.3 and marking the highest level since January 2023. Despite this improvement, the index remains below the 50 threshold, indicating contraction, a trend that has persisted since June 2022. Meanwhile, the Eurozone Services PMI slightly declined to 50.4, falling short of the expected 51.2. The Eurozone Composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, edged up to 50.4 from 50.2 in the previous month.

European Countries PMI Details

In Germany, the Manufacturing PMI improved to 48.3 from 46.5, while the Services PMI decreased to 50.2 from 51.1. France saw its Manufacturing PMI rise significantly to 48.9 from 45.8, and its Services PMI increased to 46.6 from 45.3. These figures reflect mixed performances across major European economies, with manufacturing showing signs of recovery, while services remain under pressure.

Highlight

The global economic expectation index for March recorded a slight decline, reaching 2.54%, down from the previous 2.57%. This marks the lowest level since March 2024.

Components

• US: The index decreased to 2.15% from 2.25%.
• Eurozone: The index slightly increased to 0.98% from 0.95%.
• UK: The index rose to 1.1% from 1.07%.
• Germany: The index increased to 0.48% from 0.42%.
• Japan: The index fell to 1.12% from 1.15%.
• China: The index dropped to 4.42% from 4.45%, marking the lowest level since May 2020.
• France: The index increased to 0.8% from 0.77%.
• Italy: The index rose to 0.68% from 0.65%.
• Australia: The index increased to 2.02% from 1.98%.
• Taiwan: The index rose to 2.9% from 2.74%.
• India: The index slightly increased to 6.35% from 6.33%.
• Brazil: The index decreased to 1.92% from 2.0%.
• Canada: The index rose to 1.65% from 1.62%.
• Indonesia: The index slightly increased to 5.03% from 5.02%.
• Thailand: The index remained stable at 2.78%.
• South Korea: The index slightly increased to 1.68% from 1.67%.
• Singapore: The index decreased to 2.52% from 2.56%.
• Malaysia: The index remained unchanged at 4.68%.

February Retail Sales Overview

The latest data on US retail sales for February showed a mixed performance. Retail sales increased by 0.2% on a month-over-month (MoM) basis, falling short of the forecasted 0.6% increase. Year-over-year (YoY), retail sales rose by 3.11%, down from the previous 3.91%.

Retail Sales Control Group

The retail sales control group, which excludes certain volatile items, showed a significant MoM increase of 1.0%, surpassing the forecast of 0.2%. On a YoY basis, the control group rose by 4.38%, up from the previous 3.67%.

Components Details

• Motor Vehicle sales grew by 3.06% YoY, down from 5.75%.
• Sporting Goods saw a decline of 3.04% YoY, worsening from the previous -2.04%.
• Electronics Appliance sales dropped significantly by 5.32% YoY, compared to a previous decline of 0.47%.
• Furniture sales increased by 5.48% YoY, up from 4.54%.
• Health & Personal Care sales saw a notable increase of 6.65% YoY, up from 4.41%.
• Nonstore Retailers experienced a 6.5% YoY increase, compared to 3.72% previously.
• Food & Drinking Services saw a YoY increase of 1.48%, down from 4.07%.

February CPI Overview

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February in the United States showed a lower-than-expected increase, both on a year-over-year (YoY) and month-over-month (MoM) basis. The CPI (NSA, YoY) rose by 2.82%, down from the previous 3.0% and below the forecast of 2.9%. Similarly, the CPI (SA, MoM) increased by 0.22%, compared to the previous 0.47% and the forecast of 0.3%.

Core CPI Details

The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also came in lower than anticipated. The Core CPI (NSA, YoY) was at 3.12%, a decrease from the previous 3.26% and below the forecast of 3.2%, marking the lowest level since April 2021. The Core CPI (SA, MoM) increased by 0.23%, compared to the previous 0.45% and the forecast of 0.3%.

Main Components YoY Details

Transportation Services saw a significant decrease, with the latest stats at 6.06%, down from 8.32%. Energy prices also declined, with a latest stat of -0.33%, compared to the previous 0.8%. Shelter costs decreased slightly to 4.24% from 4.4%. Education & Communication costs saw a decrease to 0.33% from 0.49%. Transportation costs fell to 1.58% from 3.06%.

Job Openings Surge

The US JOLTS Job Openings for January reported a total of 7,740,000, surpassing both the previous month's figure of 7,508,000 and the forecasted 7,650,000. This indicates a stronger-than-expected demand for labor in the market.

Job Openings Rate

The Job Openings Rate also saw a slight increase, rising to 4.6% from the previous 4.5%, suggesting a robust job market.

Components Details

The Quits Rate experienced a notable rise to 2.1% from 1.9%, reflecting increased worker confidence in finding new employment opportunities. Meanwhile, the Hires Rate remained steady at 3.4%. The Layoffs Rate decreased to 1.0% from 1.1%, indicating fewer involuntary separations in the workforce.

Highlight

The latest US nonfarm payrolls report for February showed a monthly change of 151.0k, falling short of the forecasted 159.0k and slightly above the previous month's 125.0k. The unemployment rate increased to 4.1%, which was higher than both the previous and forecasted rates of 4.0%.

Components

• Mining & Logging: Increased by 5.0k, recovering from a previous decline of -4.0k.
• Construction: Rose significantly to 19.0k from 2.0k.
• Manufacturing: Improved to 10.0k from a previous -5.0k.
• Retail Trade: Declined by -6.3k, down from a previous increase of 29.5k.
• Financial Activities: Notably increased to 21.0k from 14.0k.
• Professional & Business Services: Improved slightly to -2.0k from -39.0k.
• Education & Health Services: Increased to 73.0k from 66.0k.
• Leisure & Hospitality: Declined further to -16.0k from -14.0k.
• Government: Decreased to 11.0k from 44.0k.
• Goods Production: Rebounded to 34.0k from a previous -7.0k.
• Private Service: Increased to 106.0k from 88.0k.

ISM Services PMI Surpasses Expectations

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for February rose to 53.5, surpassing both the previous month's reading of 52.8 and the forecast of 52.5. This indicates a stronger-than-expected expansion in the services sector.

Components

• New Orders increased to 52.2 from 51.3, showing a positive trend in demand.
• Employment rose significantly to 53.9 from 52.3, marking the highest level since August 2023.
• Prices saw an increase to 62.6 from 60.4, indicating rising costs.
• Backlog of Orders experienced a notable rise to 51.7 from 44.8, suggesting an accumulation of pending work.
• Inventory improved to 50.6 from 47.5, showing a shift towards balance.
• Imports slightly decreased to 49.6 from 49.8, remaining below the neutral mark.
• Inventory Sentiment rose to 54.7 from 53.5, indicating a more positive outlook on inventory levels.

Employment Highlights

The latest ADP Nonfarm Employment report indicates a significant slowdown in job growth for February, with a monthly change of 77,000 jobs, falling short of the forecasted 141,000 and the previous month's 186,000. The median salary for job stayers remained steady at a 4.7% YoY increase, while job changers saw a slight decrease in median salary growth to 6.7% YoY from 6.8%.

Components Details

• Construction sector saw a notable increase with 26,000 jobs added, up from 15,000 previously.
• Education and Health Services experienced a decline, losing 28,000 jobs compared to a previous gain of 22,000.
• Financial Activities added 26,000 jobs, an increase from 15,000 in the prior month.
• Information sector saw a decrease, losing 14,000 jobs compared to a previous gain of 16,000.
• Leisure and Hospitality added 41,000 jobs, down from 54,000 previously.
• Manufacturing rebounded with an addition of 18,000 jobs, up from a loss of 17,000.
• Natural Resources and Mining lost 2,000 jobs, down from a previous gain of 4,000.
• Trade, Transportation, and Utilities saw a significant decline, losing 33,000 jobs compared to a previous gain of 47,000.

ISM Manufacturing PMI Overview

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its February Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which showed a decline to 50.3, down from January's 50.9 and below the forecasted 50.6. This marks a slower pace of growth in the manufacturing sector.

Main Components Details

• New Orders: Dropped significantly to 48.6 from 55.1, indicating a contraction in new demand.
• Production: Fell to 50.7 from 52.5, showing a deceleration in production activity.
• Employment: Decreased to 47.6 from 50.3, reflecting a reduction in manufacturing employment.
• Supplier Deliveries: Increased to 54.5 from 50.9, suggesting slower delivery times.
• Inventories: Rose to 49.9 from 45.9, nearing the neutral mark.
• Price: Jumped to 62.4 from 54.9, reaching the highest level since June 2022, indicating rising input costs.
• Backlog of Orders: Improved slightly to 46.8 from 44.9, though still in contraction territory.
• Exports: Declined to 51.4 from 52.4, but remained in expansion.
• Imports: Increased to 52.6 from 51.1, showing stronger import activity.

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator

The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator for February recorded a value of 96.3, surpassing both the previous month's figure of 95.3 and the forecasted value of 96.0. This indicates a stronger-than-expected improvement in economic sentiment across the Eurozone.

Main Countries and Sectors Details

In Germany, the sentiment indicator rose to 89.3 from 88.1, while France saw an increase to 98.6 from 96.3. Greece experienced a decline, with the indicator dropping to 106.9 from 108.6. Italy's sentiment indicator slightly decreased to 99.8 from 100.2, and Spain also saw a decline to 102.3 from 104.3.

Among the sector-specific indicators, the Industrial Confidence Indicator improved to -11.4 from -12.7. The Services Confidence Indicator slightly decreased to 6.2 from 6.7. The Consumer Confidence Indicator improved to -13.6 from -14.2. The Retail Confidence Indicator remained unchanged at -5.3, while the Construction Confidence Indicator slightly worsened to -3.5 from -3.0.

Global Overview

The February MM Economic Expectation Index reported a slight decline in global economic expectations, with the latest statistics showing a decrease to 2.55% from the previous 2.58%.

Key Country Insights

In the United States, the index slightly decreased to 2.17% from 2.18%. The Eurozone saw a similar trend, with a drop to 0.95% from 1.02%. The United Kingdom's index fell to 1.15% from 1.22%, while Germany's index decreased to 0.42% from 0.45%.

Japan's economic expectation index also saw a minor decline to 1.15% from 1.18%. China's index experienced a slight drop to 4.45% from 4.47%, marking its lowest level since May 2020.

Australia's index rose slightly to 1.97% from 1.93%, while Taiwan's index decreased to 2.74% from 2.77%. India's index saw a minor decrease to 6.33% from 6.36%.

Canada's index dropped to 1.73% from 1.8%, while Indonesia's index slightly increased to 5.02% from 5.0%. Thailand's index fell to 2.95% from 2.98%, and South Korea's index rose to 1.75% from 1.72%.

Singapore's index decreased to 2.56% from 2.58%, and Malaysia's index slightly declined to 4.67% from 4.68%.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for February reported a reading of 47.3, surpassing both the previous month's figure of 46.6 and the forecast of 46.9. Despite the improvement, the index remains below the 50-mark, indicating contraction in the sector since June 2022.

Eurozone Services PMI

The Services PMI in the Eurozone fell to 50.7, below both the previous month's 51.3 and the forecast of 51.5. This suggests a slower expansion in the services sector than anticipated.

Eurozone Composite PMI

The Composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, remained unchanged at 50.2, indicating stagnant growth in the overall economy.

Germany PMI Details

Germany's Manufacturing PMI rose to 46.1 from 45.0, showing signs of improvement. However, the Services PMI slightly decreased to 52.2 from 52.5.

France PMI Details

France's Manufacturing PMI edged up to 45.5 from 45.0, while the Services PMI saw a significant drop to 44.5 from 48.2, indicating a notable contraction in the services sector.

Retail Sales Overview

The US retail sales figures for January showed a significant decline, with a decrease of 0.88%, missing the forecasted decline of 0.2%. This marks the lowest level since March 2023. On a basis, retail sales grew by 4.2%, slightly down from the previous 4.36%.

The retail sales control group, which excludes certain volatile items, also fell by 0.82% , against a forecast of 0.3%, and marked the lowest level since March 2023. The growth for the control group was 3.74%, down from 4.41% previously.

Components Details

Motor Vehicle sales saw a decline, with a growth of 6.38%, down from 8.29%. Sporting Goods experienced a significant drop, with a decrease of 4.09%, compared to a previous increase of 1.92%. Electronics Appliance sales remained almost flat at 0.01%, a sharp decline from 5.54% previously. Furniture sales also decreased, showing a growth of 3.68%, down from 7.65%.

Conversely, Gasoline Stations reported a increase of 2.05%, up from a previous decline of 0.63%. Food & Drinking Services showed strong growth, with a increase of 5.42%, up from 3.27%.

CPI Overview

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January indicates a higher-than-expected increase in inflation rates. The US CPI (NSA, YoY) recorded a rise to 3.0%, surpassing both the previous 2.89% and the forecasted 2.9%. Similarly, the US CPI (SA, MoM) increased to 0.47%, exceeding the previous 0.36% and the forecasted 0.3%.

Core CPI

The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also showed a notable rise. The Core CPI (NSA, YoY) reached 3.26%, above the previous 3.24% and the forecasted 3.1%. The Core CPI (SA, MoM) was reported at 0.45%, significantly higher than the previous 0.21% and the forecasted 0.3%.

Components Details

Several components showed significant changes. Transportation Services surged to 8.32% from the previous 7.47%. Medical Care Commodities saw a notable increase to 2.29% from 0.49%. Energy prices rebounded to 0.8% from a previous decline of -0.31%. Conversely, Apparel saw a decrease to 0.47% from 1.32%, and Shelter dropped to 4.4% from 4.62%.

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Surpasses Forecast

The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator for January has been reported at 95.3, surpassing both the previous month's figure of 93.8 and the forecast of 94.1. This indicates a stronger-than-expected improvement in economic sentiment across the Eurozone.

Main Countries and Sectors Details

• Germany: Economic sentiment improved to 88.1 from 86.9.
• France: Notable increase in sentiment to 96.2 from 92.9.
• Greece: Continued positive sentiment at 108.6, up from 106.4.
• Italy: Sentiment rose to 100.2 from 98.4.
• Spain: Economic sentiment increased to 104.4 from 102.9.

Sector Confidence Indicators

• Industrial Confidence: Improved to -12.9 from -14.1.
• Services Confidence: Increased to 6.9 from 6.0.
• Consumer Confidence: Slightly better at -14.2 compared to -14.5.
• Retail Confidence: Decreased to -5.0 from -4.5.
• Construction Confidence: Improved to -3.0 from -3.8, marking the highest level since December 2023.

Job Openings Decline

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a decline in job openings for December, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicating 7.6 million openings. This figure is lower than both the previous month's 8.156 million and the forecasted 8.01 million, suggesting a slowdown in job availability.

Job Openings Rate

The job openings rate also saw a decrease, falling to 4.5% from the previous 4.9%. This drop reflects a reduction in the number of available positions relative to the labor force.

Components Details

The quits rate remained steady at 2.0%, indicating that the rate at which employees voluntarily left their jobs did not change. Similarly, the hires rate held at 3.4%, showing stability in the number of new hires. The layoffs rate also remained unchanged at 1.1%, suggesting no significant increase in involuntary job separations during the period.

Highlight

The US ADP Nonfarm Employment report for January showed a monthly change of 183,000 jobs, surpassing the forecast of 148,000 and the previous month's figure of 176,000. The report indicates a stronger-than-expected job market. Additionally, the ADP Job Stayer Median Salary saw a slight increase to 4.7% , up from 4.6% previously. Meanwhile, the ADP Job Changer Median Salary slightly decreased to 6.8% from 6.9%.

Components

In the ADP Nonfarm Employment Main Components, several sectors showed notable changes. The Leisure and Hospitality sector saw a significant increase, adding 54,000 jobs compared to 40,000 in the previous month. Trade, Transportation, and Utilities also experienced a substantial rise, with 56,000 jobs added, up from 21,000 previously. Conversely, the Manufacturing sector reported a decrease of 13,000 jobs, a sharp decline from the 8,000 jobs added in the prior month. The Information sector saw a notable increase, adding 18,000 jobs compared to 8,000 previously. Construction jobs decreased significantly, with only 3,000 jobs added compared to 18,000 in the previous month.

Highlight

The latest US job report for January indicates a significant slowdown in job growth, with Nonfarm Payrolls increasing by 143,000, falling short of the forecasted 169,000 and previous month's 307,000. The Unemployment Rate improved slightly to 4.0%, better than both the previous and forecasted rate of 4.1%.

Components

• Mining & Logging experienced a decrease of 7,000 jobs, down from a previous decrease of 3,000.
• Construction added 4,000 jobs, a drop from the previous month's 13,000.
• Manufacturing saw a modest increase of 3,000 jobs, recovering from a previous loss of 12,000.
• Transportation added only 1,100 jobs, a significant decline from the previous 21,500.
• Professional & Business Services saw a decrease of 11,000 jobs, compared to a previous increase of 31,000.
• Leisure & Hospitality experienced a decline of 3,000 jobs, down from a previous increase of 49,000.
• Private Service sector added 111,000 jobs, significantly lower than the previous 275,000.

US GDP Growth Slows

The US GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth for Q4 came in at 2.3%, falling short of the forecasted 2.7% and down from the previous quarter's 3.1%. On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, the GDP growth was 2.5%, slightly lower than the previous 2.7%.

GDP Growth by Component

Consumption showed a robust increase, with the latest stats at 4.2%, up from the previous 3.7%. However, investment saw a significant decline, with the latest stats at -5.6%, compared to a previous increase of 0.8%. Government expenditures also decreased, with the latest stats at 2.5%, down from 5.1% in the previous quarter. Both exports and imports showed a negative growth of -0.8%, a stark contrast to the previous quarter's growth of 9.6% and 10.7%, respectively.

Eurozone PMI Overview

The Eurozone's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reports for January show mixed results across sectors. The Manufacturing PMI recorded a value of 46.6, surpassing both the previous month's figure of 45.1 and the forecast of 45.6. Despite this improvement, the index remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating contraction in the sector since June 2022. Meanwhile, the Services PMI slightly decreased to 51.3 from 51.6, falling short of the forecasted 51.4. The Composite PMI, which combines both manufacturing and services, rose to 50.2 from 49.6, signaling a marginal expansion.

European Countries PMI Details

Germany's Manufacturing PMI improved to 45.0 from 42.5, while its Services PMI increased to 52.5 from 51.2, indicating growth in the services sector. In France, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 45.0 from 41.9, showing some recovery, though still in contraction territory. However, the French Services PMI declined to 48.2 from 49.3, indicating a further contraction in the services sector.

ISM Services PMI Overview

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January stood at 52.8, falling short of the forecasted 54.2 and down from December's 54.1. This indicates a slower expansion in the services sector than anticipated.

Main Components Details

• Business Activity: Dropped to 54.5 from 58.2.
• New Orders: Decreased to 51.3 from 54.2.
• Employment: Increased slightly to 52.3 from 51.4.
• Inventory: Fell to 47.5 from 49.4, indicating contraction.
• Prices: Declined to 60.4 from 64.4.
• Backlog of Orders: Slightly down to 44.8 from 44.3.
• New Export Orders: Rose to 52.0 from 50.1.
• Imports: Dropped to 49.8 from 50.7.
• Inventory Sentiment: Marginally up to 53.5 from 53.4.

The data reflects mixed performance across various components, with notable declines in business activity and new orders, while employment and new export orders showed improvement.

ISM Manufacturing PMI Surges

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.9 in January, surpassing both the previous month's figure of 49.2 and the forecast of 49.3. This marks the highest level since August 2022, indicating a stronger-than-expected expansion in the manufacturing sector.

New Orders and Production Increase

New orders surged to 55.1, up from 52.1, reaching the highest level since February 2022. Production also increased, registering at 52.5 compared to the previous 49.9.

Employment and Supplier Deliveries

Employment showed a significant rise to 50.3 from 45.4, while supplier deliveries slightly improved to 50.9 from 50.1.

Inventories and Prices

Inventories decreased to 45.9 from 48.4, while prices saw an increase, moving to 54.9 from 52.5.

Exports and Imports

Exports climbed to 52.4 from 50.0, and imports rose to 51.1 from 49.7, indicating growth in both areas.

Backlog of Orders

The backlog of orders decreased to 44.9 from 45.9, suggesting a reduction in pending orders.

Highlight

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December showed a YoY increase of 2.89%, slightly below the forecast of 2.9% and previous figure of 2.75%. On a MoM basis, the CPI rose by 0.39%, again falling short of the expected 0.4% and the previous 0.31%. The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also came in lower than anticipated, with a YoY rise of 3.24% compared to the forecast of 3.3% and previous 3.32%. The MoM Core CPI increased by 0.23%, below the expected 0.3% and the previous 0.31%.

Components

In the detailed breakdown, Transportation Services saw a significant YoY increase to 7.48% from 7.04%. Energy prices decreased by 0.39%, an improvement from the previous -3.15%. Shelter costs rose by 4.62%, slightly down from 4.78%. Medical Care Services experienced a decline to 3.37% from 3.7%, while Recreation costs fell to 1.1% from 1.48%. Transportation costs increased to 1.73% from 0.41%, and Medical Care overall saw a decrease to 2.84% from 3.08%.

Highlight

The US job market showed stronger-than-expected growth in December, with Nonfarm Payrolls increasing by 256,000, surpassing the forecast of 164,000 and the previous month's 212,000. The Unemployment Rate also showed improvement, dropping to 4.1% from the previous 4.2%, against expectations of remaining steady at 4.2%.

Components

Retail Trade experienced a significant rebound, adding 43,400 jobs compared to a loss of 29,200 in the previous month. Professional & Business Services also saw a notable increase, with 28,000 jobs added, up from 9,000 previously. Education & Health Services, while still growing, added 80,000 jobs, slightly down from 87,000. Manufacturing, however, saw a decline, losing 13,000 jobs after gaining 25,000 in the prior month. Goods Production overall saw a decrease of 8,000 jobs, contrasting with a previous increase of 34,000. Private Service sectors showed robust growth, adding 231,000 jobs compared to 148,000 in the previous month.

Retail Sales Overview

The latest data on US retail sales for December indicates a slower growth than anticipated. Retail sales increased by 0.45% , falling short of the forecasted 0.6% and down from the previous month's 0.77%. On a basis, retail sales rose by 3.92%, slightly lower than the previous 4.12%.

Retail Sales Control Group

The retail sales control group, which excludes certain volatile items, showed a stronger performance with a 0.67% increase , surpassing the forecast of 0.4% and up from the previous 0.41%. On a basis, the control group grew by 4.1%, compared to 4.51% previously.

Components Details

• Motor Vehicle sales saw a significant increase of 8.37% , up from 7.38%.
• Sporting Goods rebounded with a 1.8% increase, compared to a previous decline of -3.22%.
• Building Material & Garden Equipment sales decreased by -1.76%, down from a 2.09% increase.
• Electronics Appliance sales rose sharply by 5.81%, compared to 2.09% previously.
• Furniture sales surged by 8.36%, up from 2.79%.
• Gasoline Stations reported a smaller decline of -1.25%, compared to -3.71% previously.
• Nonstore Retailers experienced a decrease in growth, posting a 6.0% increase compared to 9.79% previously.