Highlight

The latest data for June shows that US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the forecast of 111,000 and slightly above the previous month's figure of 144,000. The unemployment rate also saw a positive shift, decreasing to 4.1% from the previous 4.2%, and beating the forecasted rate of 4.3%.

Components

• Construction: A notable increase with 15,000 jobs added, up from 6,000 previously.
• Wholesale Trade: A significant drop, losing 6,600 jobs compared to a gain of 3,700 in the previous month.
• Retail Trade: A positive turnaround with 2,400 jobs added, recovering from a loss of 7,100 previously.
• Transportation: An increase to 7,500 jobs from 4,500 in the previous month.
• Government: A substantial rise with 73,000 jobs added, up from 7,000 previously.
• Professional & Business Services: A decline of 7,000 jobs, down from no change in the previous month.
• Education & Health Services: A decrease to 51,000 jobs from 83,000 previously.
• Private Service: A decrease to 68,000 jobs from 141,000 previously.

Employment Highlights

The latest ADP Nonfarm Employment report reveals a significant decline in employment figures for June, with a monthly change of -33,000, compared to the previous increase of 29,000 and a forecast of 99,000. This marks the lowest level since March 2023. Additionally, the ADP Job Stayer Median Salary saw a slight decrease to 4.4% YoY, the lowest since May 2021, while the ADP Job Changer Median Salary also declined to 6.8% YoY from 7.0%.

Components Details

Several sectors experienced notable changes in employment figures. Education and Health Services saw a substantial drop, with a change of -52,000 compared to -16,000 previously. Financial Activities also faced a decline, with a change of -14,000 from a previous 17,000. Conversely, the Manufacturing sector showed improvement, with a change of 15,000 from a previous -6,000. Natural Resources and Mining also rebounded with a change of 8,000 from -3,000. Professional and Business Services experienced a significant decrease, with a change of -56,000 compared to -13,000 previously. Leisure and Hospitality saw a reduction in growth, with a change of 32,000 from 43,000.

Job Openings Increase

The latest data from the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicates a rise in job openings for May, reaching 7,769,000. This figure surpasses both the previous month's 7,395,000 and the forecasted 7,320,000, suggesting a stronger-than-expected demand for labor.

Job Openings Rate

The job openings rate also saw an increase, climbing to 4.6% from the previous 4.4%, reflecting the heightened level of available positions in the job market.

Components Details

The quits rate edged up slightly to 2.1% from 2.0%, indicating a marginal increase in voluntary separations. Meanwhile, the hires rate experienced a slight decline, moving down to 3.4% from 3.5%. Additionally, the layoffs rate decreased to 1.0% from 1.1%, suggesting fewer involuntary separations in the workforce.

ISM Manufacturing PMI Overview

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its June Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), reporting a rise to 49.0, surpassing both the previous month's figure of 48.5 and the forecast of 48.8. This indicates a slight improvement in the manufacturing sector, though it remains below the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.

Main Components Details

• Production saw a significant increase, reaching 50.3 from 45.4, suggesting a rebound in manufacturing output.
• Exports also showed notable improvement, climbing to 46.3 from 40.1, indicating a recovery in international demand.
• Imports rose sharply to 47.4 from 39.9, reflecting increased purchasing activity.
• Supplier Deliveries decreased to 54.2 from 56.1, suggesting faster delivery times.
• Backlog of Orders fell to 44.3 from 47.1, indicating a reduction in unfulfilled orders.
• Customers' Inventories increased to 46.7 from 44.5, showing a rise in stock levels.
• New Orders declined to 46.4 from 47.6, indicating a decrease in demand.
• Employment decreased to 45.0 from 46.8, reflecting a contraction in hiring.
• Price remained relatively stable, slightly increasing to 69.7 from 69.4, indicating persistent price pressures.

Economic Sentiment Overview

The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator for June has fallen to 94.0, down from the previous month's 94.8 and below the forecasted 95.1. This decline indicates a weaker economic outlook than anticipated.

Main Countries and Sectors Details

In Germany, the sentiment indicator dropped to 90.7 from 91.5. France saw a significant decline to 89.6 from 93.0, marking its lowest level since November 2020. Greece's indicator slightly decreased to 106.1 from 107.0, while Italy's sentiment rose marginally to 98.9 from 98.7. Spain's indicator fell to 102.0 from 103.4.

Sector Confidence Indicators

The Industrial Confidence Indicator decreased to -12.0 from -10.4, indicating a more negative outlook in the industrial sector. The Services Confidence Indicator improved to 2.9 from 1.8, showing some positive sentiment in the services sector. The Consumer Confidence Indicator slightly worsened to -15.3 from -15.1. The Retail Confidence Indicator also declined to -7.5 from -7.2. However, the Construction Confidence Indicator improved to -2.8 from -3.5, reaching its highest level since December 2023.

Highlights

The June MM Fundamental Index Reports reveal significant movements across various markets. Notably, US stocks have seen a slight increase, with the latest stats at 2.8 compared to the previous 2.73. Taiwan stocks have reached their highest level since January 2022, now at 2.39, up from 2.0. China stocks have surged to 3.3, marking the highest level since September 2021. Emerging market stocks have also reached a new peak since October 2021, with a latest stat of 4.4, up from 2.8.

Components

In the bond market, US bonds have risen to 1.49 from 1.13, while investment-grade corporate bonds have slightly decreased to 7.16 from 7.55. High yield bonds have also seen a decrease, now at 6.59 from 6.88. The US Dollar has rebounded to 1.29 from a previous -0.43. The EUR has reached its highest level since July 2021, now at 3.58, up from 2.57. In the commodities market, oil has improved to -2.04 from -3.26, reaching its highest level since September 2023. Silver has declined to -3.12 from -2.39, while copper has slightly decreased to 0.55 from 0.71.

Eurozone PMI Overview

The Eurozone's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June presented mixed results. The Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 49.4, falling short of the forecasted 49.6 and continuing its streak below the 50.0 mark since June 2022. The Services PMI reached 50.0, aligning with forecasts and showing a slight improvement from the previous 49.7. The Composite PMI held steady at 50.2, consistent with the prior month's reading.

European Countries PMI Details

Germany's Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.0 from 48.3, while its Services PMI saw a significant rise to 49.4 from 47.1. In contrast, France's Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.8 from 49.8, and its Services PMI slightly decreased to 48.7 from 48.9. These figures indicate varying performance across major European economies, with Germany showing signs of improvement in both sectors, whereas France experienced declines.

Highlight

The World Economic Expectation Index for June has declined to 2.19%, down from the previous 2.22%, marking the lowest level since December 2023.

Main Countries Details

In the United States, the index increased slightly to 1.5% from 1.44%. The Eurozone saw a rise to 1.02% from 0.98%, while the UK experienced an increase to 1.12% from 1.05%. Germany's index rose to 0.65% from 0.46%, and China's index increased to 4.35% from 4.31%. Meanwhile, Australia saw a slight increase to 2.05% from 2.01%.

Japan's index decreased to 0.75% from 0.8%, and Singapore saw a significant drop to 1.72% from 2.16%. Thailand's index also fell to 2.0% from 2.19%. In contrast, South Korea's index rose to 1.38% from 1.27%, and Malaysia's index increased to 4.22% from 4.18%.

India and Taiwan remained stable at 6.3% and 2.7%, respectively. Brazil's index increased to 1.88% from 1.82%, while Canada's index slightly decreased to 1.08% from 1.1%. Indonesia's index showed a marginal increase to 4.85% from 4.84%.

Retail Sales Overview

In May, US retail sales experienced a decline, with the month-on-month (MoM) figure dropping by 0.91%, compared to a previous decline of 0.08%. This decrease was larger than the forecasted 0.5% drop, marking the lowest level since March 2023. Year-on-year (YoY), retail sales grew by 3.29%, down from 5.0% in the previous period.

Retail Sales Control Group

The retail sales control group, which excludes more volatile categories, saw a MoM increase of 0.36%, surpassing the forecast of 0.3% and the previous decline of 0.08%. The YoY growth for this group was 5.0%, slightly down from 5.2% previously.

Components Details

Motor Vehicle sales saw a significant YoY slowdown, with growth at 2.48% compared to 8.9% previously. Sporting Goods showed an increase to 1.77% from 0.46%. Building Material & Garden Equipment sales declined by 1.07%, reversing from a previous growth of 2.11%. Electronics Appliance sales decreased by 1.9%, down from a previous decline of 0.22%. Furniture sales rose to 8.85% from 8.13%. Gasoline Stations saw a slight improvement, with a decline of 6.88% compared to 6.94% previously. Nonstore Retailers grew by 8.29%, slightly down from 8.67%.

Inflation Rates Below Expectations

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May revealed lower than anticipated inflation rates. The CPI (NSA, YoY) recorded a 2.35% increase, down from the forecasted 2.5% and slightly higher than the previous 2.31%. The CPI (SA, MoM) showed a 0.08% rise, below the expected 0.2% and previous 0.22%.

Core CPI figures also fell short of predictions. The Core CPI (NSA, YoY) rose by 2.79%, under the forecasted 2.9% and marginally above the prior 2.78%. Meanwhile, the Core CPI (SA, MoM) increased by 0.13%, missing the expected 0.3% and previous 0.24%.

Components Details

Several components exhibited notable changes. Apparel prices declined by 0.92%, a decrease from the previous -0.71%. Energy prices continued to fall, with a -3.12% change compared to the prior -3.48%. Medical Care Commodities saw a significant drop to 0.28% from 0.97%. Transportation prices also decreased, showing a -1.23% change from the previous -1.4%. On the other hand, Food & Beverages saw an increase to 2.81% from 2.69%, and Recreation rose to 1.8% from 1.59%.

Highlight

The US Nonfarm Payrolls for May showed a monthly increase of 139,000, surpassing the forecast of 126,000, though slightly down from the previous month's 147,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, aligning with both previous and forecasted figures.

Components

In the main components of the job report, several sectors showed notable changes. Manufacturing saw a significant decline with a decrease of 8,000 jobs compared to a previous increase of 5,000. Retail Trade also experienced a drop, losing 6,500 jobs compared to a previous decline of 2,700. On the positive side, Financial Activities surged with an increase of 13,000 jobs, up from 3,000 previously. Leisure & Hospitality saw a robust gain of 48,000 jobs, improving from 29,000 in the prior month. Professional & Business Services experienced a sharp decline, losing 18,000 jobs after a previous gain of 10,000. Education & Health Services added 87,000 jobs, slightly down from 100,000 previously. Private Service sector showed a strong increase, adding 145,000 jobs compared to 132,000 in the previous month.

Highlight

The ISM Services PMI for May reported a decrease to 49.9, falling below both the previous month's 51.6 and the forecasted 52.0. This marks a significant drop, indicating a contraction in the services sector.

Components

• New Orders: Dropped to 46.4 from 52.3, marking the lowest level since December 2022.
• Prices: Increased to 68.7 from 65.1, reaching the highest level since November 2022.
• Backlog of Orders: Fell to 43.4 from 48.0.
• Inventory Sentiment: Rose to 62.9 from 56.1, indicating a higher sentiment towards inventory levels.
• Imports: Increased to 48.2 from 44.3, showing a slight improvement.

The report highlights a mixed performance across various components, with significant declines in new orders and backlog of orders, while prices and inventory sentiment showed notable increases.

Highlight

The US ADP Nonfarm Employment report for May shows a significant slowdown in job growth, with a monthly change of 37,000 jobs, down from 60,000 in the previous month and below the forecast of 111,000. This marks the lowest level since March 2023. Meanwhile, the median salary for job stayers and job changers remained steady at 4.5% and 7.0% YoY, respectively.

Components

In the breakdown of employment changes, the Leisure and Hospitality sector saw a notable increase, adding 38,000 jobs compared to 20,000 previously. Conversely, Professional and Business Services experienced a significant decline, losing 17,000 jobs after a gain of 1,000 in the prior month. The Construction sector also saw a decrease, adding only 6,000 jobs compared to 18,000 previously. Education and Health Services continued to decline, shedding 13,000 jobs, although this was an improvement from the previous month's loss of 28,000. Manufacturing and Natural Resources and Mining sectors both reported job losses, with decreases of 3,000 and 5,000 jobs, respectively. The Information sector, however, rebounded with an 8,000 job increase after a previous loss of 10,000.

Job Openings Surge

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the number of job openings in April rose to 7.391 million, surpassing both the previous month's figure of 7.2 million and the forecasted 7.11 million. This increase in job openings indicates a stronger-than-expected demand for labor in the U.S. economy.

Job Openings Rate

The job openings rate also saw a slight increase, rising to 4.4% from the previous month's 4.3%.

Components Details

• Quits Rate: The quits rate decreased to 2.0% from 2.1% in the previous month, suggesting a slight decline in the number of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs.
• Hires Rate: The hires rate edged up to 3.5% from 3.4%, indicating a modest increase in hiring activity.
• Layoffs Rate: The layoffs rate increased to 1.1% from 1.0%, reflecting a slight rise in involuntary separations.

ISM Manufacturing PMI Overview

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May stood at 48.5, slightly below the previous month's figure of 48.7 and missing the forecast of 49.3. This indicates a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector.

Components Details

• New Order: Increased slightly to 47.6 from 47.2.
• Production: Rose to 45.4 from 44.0.
• Supplier Deliveries: Increased to 56.1 from 55.2.
• Inventories: Dropped significantly to 46.7 from 50.8.
• Customers' Inventories: Fell to 44.5 from 46.2, marking the lowest level since March 2024.
• Backlog of Orders: Improved to 47.1 from 43.7.
• Exports: Declined to 40.1 from 43.1.
• Imports: Decreased sharply to 39.9 from 47.1.

The data reflects mixed performance across various components, with notable declines in inventories and imports, while supplier deliveries and backlog of orders showed improvement.

Market Highlights

The May MM Fundamental Index Reports reveal a mixed performance across various markets. Notably, US stocks showed a positive movement with the latest stats at 3.64, up from the previous 3.0. Taiwan stocks reached their highest level since March 2022, with a latest stat of 2.0 compared to the previous 1.43. Emerging market stocks also saw a significant rise, achieving their highest level since October 2021, with a latest stat of 2.82, up from 2.06.

Components Details

• Europe Stock: The index showed a decline, with the latest stats at -3.65, down from -1.39.
• High Yield Bond: Experienced a substantial increase, with the latest stats at 6.63, up from 4.0.
• US Dollar: Dropped to its lowest level since April 2021, with the latest stats at -0.43, down from 0.81.
• Taiwan Dollar: Reached its highest level since May 2022, with the latest stats at 3.02, up from 2.14.
• Japanese Yen: Achieved its highest level since May 2020, with the latest stats at 2.74, up from 1.69.
• Oil: Continued to decline, with the latest stats at -3.29, compared to the previous -3.78.
• Silver: Also showed a decline, with the latest stats at -2.41, down from -2.03.

Economic Sentiment Overview

The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator for May recorded a value of 94.8, surpassing both the previous month's figure of 93.8 and the forecasted 94.0. This indicates a stronger-than-expected sentiment in the Eurozone economy.

Main Countries and Sectors Details

• Germany: The economic sentiment improved to 91.5 from 90.0.
• France: The sentiment dropped to 93.1 from 96.6.
• Greece: The indicator slightly decreased to 107.0 from 107.4.
• Italy: There was an increase to 98.6 from 95.8.
• Spain: The sentiment edged down to 103.4 from 103.8.

Sector Confidence Indicators

• Industrial Confidence: Improved to -10.3 from -11.0, marking the highest level since March 2024.
• Services Confidence: Slightly decreased to 1.5 from 1.6, the lowest since April 2021.
• Consumer Confidence: Improved to -15.2 from -16.6.
• Retail Confidence: Increased to -7.0 from -8.9.
• Construction Confidence: Improved to -3.6 from -4.1.

Eurozone PMI Overview

The Eurozone's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reports for May indicate a continued contraction in the economy. The Manufacturing PMI recorded a figure of 48.4, down from the previous 49.0 and below the forecast of 49.2. This marks a continuous period below the 50 threshold since June 2022, indicating contraction. The Services PMI also fell to 48.9, down from 50.1, and below the forecast of 50.4, reaching its lowest level since January 2024. The Composite PMI, which combines both manufacturing and services, decreased to 49.5 from 50.4.

European Countries PMI Details

In Germany, the Manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 48.8 from 48.4, while the Services PMI declined to 47.2 from 49.0. France saw its Manufacturing PMI rise to 49.5 from 48.7, but the Services PMI remained relatively stable at 47.4, compared to the previous 47.3. These figures reflect ongoing challenges in the Eurozone's major economies, with both manufacturing and services sectors struggling to gain momentum.

Global Overview

The May MM Economic Expectation Index reported a slight decline to 2.17%, down from the previous 2.2%, marking the lowest level since December 2023.

Regional Insights

In the United States, the index slightly increased to 1.44% from 1.43%. The Eurozone saw a minor decrease to 0.92% from 0.93%, reaching its lowest level since April 2024. The United Kingdom experienced a slight rise to 1.02% from 1.0%.

Notable Changes

Germany's index fell to 0.46% from 0.5%, while Japan's decreased to 0.89% from 0.93%. China's index dropped to 4.12% from 4.18%, the lowest since April 2020. France and Italy both saw slight increases, with France at 0.67% from 0.63% and Italy at 0.62% from 0.6%.

Other Key Markets

Australia's index rose to 2.07% from 2.03%, while Taiwan saw a decrease to 2.68% from 2.7%. India's index fell to 6.24% from 6.33%, and Brazil's decreased to 1.75% from 1.8%. Canada saw a decline to 1.12% from 1.15%, and Indonesia's index dropped to 4.84% from 5.0%. Thailand's index decreased to 2.44% from 2.53%, and South Korea's fell to 1.33% from 1.5%. Singapore and Malaysia also saw declines, with Singapore at 2.28% from 2.4% and Malaysia at 4.47% from 4.55%.

Retail Sales Overview

The latest data for US retail sales in April showed a mixed performance. The retail sales on a month-over-month (MoM) basis increased by 0.06%, surpassing the forecast of 0.0% but showing a significant decline from the previous month's 1.68%. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, retail sales grew by 5.16%, slightly down from the previous 5.25%.

Control Group Sales

The retail sales control group, which excludes more volatile categories, reported a MoM increase of 0.24%, falling short of the expected 0.3% and down from the previous 0.51%. The YoY growth for the control group was 4.89%, a decrease from the prior 5.32%.

Components Details

Motor Vehicle sales saw a notable YoY increase of 9.39%, up from 8.91%. In contrast, Electronics Appliance sales showed a marginal growth of 0.09%, down from 2.54%. Gasoline Stations experienced a significant YoY decline of -6.82%, compared to -4.54% previously. Clothing sales also dropped to 3.55% from 7.04%. Nonstore Retailers and Food & Drinking Services reported YoY increases of 7.5% and 7.8%, respectively, indicating strong performance in these sectors.

Job Openings Decline

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for March shows a decline in job openings in the United States. The number of job openings fell to 7,192,000 from the previous 7,480,000, indicating a decrease in the demand for labor.

Job Openings Rate

The job openings rate also saw a decline, dropping to 4.3% from the previous 4.5%. This suggests a slight cooling in the labor market as fewer positions are available for job seekers.

Components Details

The quits rate increased slightly to 2.1% from 2.0%, suggesting that more workers are voluntarily leaving their jobs, possibly in search of better opportunities. The hires rate remained steady at 3.4%, indicating stable hiring activity. Meanwhile, the layoffs rate decreased to 1.0% from 1.1%, reflecting a reduction in involuntary separations.

Employment Highlights

The latest ADP Nonfarm Employment report indicates a monthly change of 62,000 jobs in April, a decrease from the previous month's 147,000. Job stayer median salary growth has slightly decreased to 4.5%, marking the lowest level since June 2021, while job changer median salary growth has increased to 6.9% from 6.7%.

Components Details

• Construction saw a significant increase, with employment rising by 16,000 compared to the previous 2,000.
• Education and Health Services experienced a notable decline, with a decrease of 23,000 jobs from a previous increase of 15,000.
• Financial Activities saw a decrease in growth, adding 20,000 jobs compared to the previous 38,000.
• Information sector employment fell by 8,000, reversing from a previous increase of 3,000.
• Leisure and Hospitality continued to grow, adding 27,000 jobs, up from 23,000.
• Manufacturing added 4,000 jobs, down from the previous 17,000.
• Natural Resources and Mining saw a positive shift, adding 6,000 jobs after a previous decrease of 3,000.
• Other Services saw a decline, losing 1,000 jobs compared to a previous gain of 10,000.
• Professional and Business Services decreased by 2,000 jobs, down from a previous increase of 46,000.
• Trade, Transportation, and Utilities added 21,000 jobs, recovering from a previous decrease of 4,000.

Highlight

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April showed a lower-than-expected increase, with the non-seasonally adjusted year-over-year (YoY) CPI at 2.31%, down from 2.39% in the previous month and below the forecast of 2.4%. This marks the lowest level since February 2021. The seasonally adjusted month-over-month (MoM) CPI rose by 0.22%, compared to a decline of 0.05% in the previous month and below the forecast of 0.3%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, also came in lower than expected at 2.78% YoY and 0.24% MoM, both the lowest since early 2021.

Components

In the main components, Apparel saw a significant decrease, with a YoY change of -0.71% compared to 0.35% previously. Transportation Services also declined to 2.37% from 3.08%. Energy prices continued to fall, with a YoY change of -3.48%, down from -3.22%. Education & Communication showed a notable decrease to 0.23% from 0.56%. On the other hand, Housing rose to 3.97% from 3.71%, and Medical Care Services increased to 3.14% from 3.02%. Transportation saw a further decline to -1.4% from -0.83%.

ISM Services PMI Overview

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April rose to 51.6, surpassing both the previous month's figure of 50.8 and the forecast of 50.2. This indicates a stronger-than-expected expansion in the services sector.

Main Components Details

• Business Activity decreased to 53.7 from 55.9.
• New Orders improved to 52.3 from 50.4.
• Employment rose to 49.0 from 46.2.
• Supplier Deliveries slightly increased to 51.3 from 50.6.
• Inventory jumped to 53.4 from 50.3.
• Prices surged to 65.1 from 60.9, marking the highest level since February 2023.
• Backlog of Orders edged up to 48.0 from 47.4.
• New Export Orders climbed to 48.6 from 45.8.
• Imports fell significantly to 44.3 from 52.6.
• Inventory Sentiment slightly decreased to 56.1 from 56.6.

Highlight

The latest data on US Nonfarm Payrolls for April showed a monthly increase of 177,000, surpassing the forecast of 138,000 and slightly below the previous month's 185,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, aligning with both previous and forecasted figures.

Components

• Mining & Logging saw a modest increase of 1,000 jobs, recovering from a previous decline of 1,000.
• Construction added 11,000 jobs, up from 7,000 in the prior month.
• Manufacturing experienced a decrease of 1,000 jobs, contrasting with a previous increase of 3,000.
• Wholesale Trade gained 5,800 jobs, a significant rise from a previous decline of 800.
• Retail Trade lost 1,800 jobs, a notable drop from a previous gain of 21,700.
• Transportation saw a substantial increase of 29,000 jobs, up from 2,700.
• Utilities experienced a decline of 600 jobs, down from a previous increase of 1,400.
• Financial Activities added 14,000 jobs, more than doubling the previous month's increase of 6,000.
• Professional & Business Services increased by 17,000 jobs, up from 3,000 previously.
• Education & Health Services added 70,000 jobs, slightly down from 74,000.
• Leisure & Hospitality saw a decrease in growth, adding 24,000 jobs compared to 38,000 previously.
• Government jobs increased by 10,000, down from 15,000 in the prior month.

Highlight

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April came in at 48.7, surpassing the forecast of 48.0 but slightly down from the previous month's 49.0. This indicates a slower contraction in the manufacturing sector than anticipated.

Components

• New Orders: Increased to 47.2 from 45.2, showing signs of improvement.
• Production: Dropped significantly to 44.0 from 48.3, marking the lowest level since May 2020.
• Employment: Rose to 46.5 from 44.7, indicating a slight recovery.
• Supplier Deliveries: Increased to 55.2 from 53.5, suggesting slower delivery times.
• Inventories: Decreased to 50.8 from 53.4, reflecting reduced stock levels.
• Price: Rose to 69.8 from 69.4, reaching the highest level since June 2022.
• Exports: Fell sharply to 43.1 from 49.6, indicating a decline in international demand.
• Imports: Decreased to 47.1 from 50.1, showing reduced import activity.

US GDP Contracts in Q1

The preliminary data for the first quarter shows the US GDP contracted at an annualized rate of -0.3%, falling short of the forecasted 0.2% growth and marking the lowest level since January 2022. This is the first time the GDP has fallen below 0% since Q1 2022. The year-over-year growth rate also slowed to 2.0%, down from the previous 2.5%.

GDP Growth by Component

• Consumption: The growth in consumption slowed significantly, with the latest stats at 1.8%, down from 4.0% in the previous quarter.
• Investment: Investment surged with a remarkable increase to 21.9%, compared to a -5.6% contraction previously.
• Government Expenditures: Government spending decreased by -1.4%, reversing from a 3.1% increase in the prior quarter.
• Exports: Exports saw a slight improvement, rising to 1.8% from a previous -0.2%.
• Imports: Imports experienced a significant jump, increasing by 41.3%, up from a -1.9% decline in the last quarter.

Economic Sentiment Indicator

The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator for April registered at 93.6, falling short of the forecasted 94.5 and down from the previous 95.0. This decline indicates a weaker-than-expected economic outlook for the region.

Main Countries and Sectors Details

In Germany, the sentiment indicator slightly increased to 89.9 from 89.4. France saw a minor decrease, with the indicator at 96.4 compared to the previous 96.6. Greece's indicator dropped to 107.4 from 107.7. Italy experienced a significant decline, with the indicator at 95.6, marking the lowest level since October 2022. Spain's indicator improved slightly to 103.8 from 103.4.

Sectoral Confidence Indicators

The Industrial Confidence Indicator fell to -11.2 from -10.7. The Services Confidence Indicator dropped to 1.4, reaching its lowest level since April 2021. The Consumer Confidence Indicator decreased to -16.7, the lowest since November 2023. The Retail Confidence Indicator also saw a decline, registering at -8.9 from -7.0. Lastly, the Construction Confidence Indicator fell to -4.3 from -3.7.

Eurozone PMI Overview

The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for April reported a figure of 48.7, surpassing the forecast of 47.4 and marking the highest level since January 2023. Despite this improvement, the index remains below the 50 mark, indicating contraction, a trend that has persisted since June 2022. Meanwhile, the Eurozone Services PMI fell to 49.7, below the expected 50.4, and down from the previous 51.0. The Eurozone Composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, recorded a decline to 50.1 from 50.9.

European Countries PMI Details

In Germany, the Manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 48.0 from 48.3, while the Services PMI saw a more significant drop to 48.8 from 50.9. France's Manufacturing PMI also edged down to 48.2 from 48.5. The Services PMI in France experienced a notable decline, falling to 46.8 from 47.9. These figures indicate ongoing challenges in the services sector across major European economies, contrasting with a modest improvement in manufacturing.

Highlight

The global Economic Expectation Index for April has shown a decline, reaching 2.39%, down from the previous 2.46%. This marks the lowest level since February 2024.

Components

• US: The index fell to 1.81% from 1.93%, marking the lowest level since January 2024.
• Eurozone: The index decreased to 0.93% from 0.98%, reaching the lowest level since April 2024.
• Germany: The index rose to 0.57% from 0.44%.
• Japan: The index dropped to 0.93% from 1.12%.
• China: The index slightly decreased to 4.4% from 4.42%, the lowest since May 2020.
• France: The index fell to 0.67% from 0.8%.
• Australia: The index increased slightly to 2.13% from 2.1%.
• India: The index rose marginally to 6.37% from 6.35%.
• Indonesia: The index decreased slightly to 5.0% from 5.03%.
• South Korea: The index fell to 1.57% from 1.68%.
• Singapore: The index decreased to 2.43% from 2.52%.
• Malaysia: The index slightly decreased to 4.65% from 4.68%.

Retail Sales Overview

US retail sales rose by 1.43% MoM in March, surpassing the forecast of 1.3% and marking the highest level since January 2023. On a YoY basis, retail sales increased by 4.6%, the highest since December 2023.

Control Group Performance

The retail sales control group, which excludes more volatile categories, showed a MoM increase of 0.37%, falling short of the expected 0.6%. On a YoY basis, the control group rose by 4.56%, slightly down from the previous 5.09%.

Components Details

• Motor Vehicle sales surged by 8.8% YoY, up from 2.3% previously.
• Sporting Goods saw a turnaround with a 2.7% increase, compared to a previous decline of 3.3%.
• Building Material & Garden Equipment rose by 2.61%, reversing a previous decline of 0.81%.
• Electronics Appliance sales increased by 1.76%, up from a previous decline of 3.23%.
• Gasoline Stations experienced a decline of 4.35%, down from a previous increase of 0.1%.
• Clothing sales rose significantly by 5.42%, up from 1.72% previously.
• Nonstore Retailers saw a decline to 4.82% from a previous 8.25%.
• Food & Drinking Services increased by 4.78%, up from 2.7% previously.

Highlight

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March showed a notable decrease, with the year-over-year (YoY) CPI (NSA) coming in at 2.39%, down from the previous 2.82% and below the forecasted 2.5%. This marks the lowest level since February 2021. The month-over-month (MoM) CPI (SA) also declined to -0.05%, compared to the previous 0.22% and a forecast of 0.1%. Core CPI (NSA, YoY) dropped to 2.79%, the lowest since March 2021, from a previous 3.12% and a forecast of 3.0%. Core CPI (SA, MoM) fell to 0.06%, down from 0.23% and below the expected 0.3%.

Components

• Food & Beverages increased to 2.89% from 2.52%.
• Transportation Services saw a significant drop to 3.08% from 6.06%.
• Energy experienced a notable decline to -3.22% from -0.33%.
• Transportation fell to -0.83% from 1.58%.
• Medical Care Commodities decreased to 1.0% from 2.32%.
• Education & Communication rose to 0.56% from 0.33%.

Highlight

The latest data for the US Nonfarm Payrolls showed a significant increase, with a monthly change of 228.0k, surpassing both the previous month's 117.0k and the forecasted 137.0k. The unemployment rate also rose slightly to 4.2%, higher than both the previous and forecasted rate of 4.1%.

Components

In the main components of the monthly change, Retail Trade saw a substantial increase with 23.7k jobs added, compared to a decrease of 1.8k in the previous month. Transportation also experienced a notable rise, adding 22.9k jobs compared to 16.2k previously. Education & Health Services saw a significant increase with 77.0k jobs added, up from 60.0k. Leisure & Hospitality rebounded strongly with 43.0k jobs added, compared to a loss of 17.0k in the previous month. Government jobs increased by 19.0k, a notable rise from the previous 1.0k. Conversely, sectors like Mining & Logging and Wholesale Trade saw declines, with -2.0k jobs each, compared to previous increases. Manufacturing also showed a slowdown, adding only 1.0k jobs compared to 8.0k previously.

ISM Services PMI Overview

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March stood at 50.8, a decline from February's 53.5 and below the forecasted 53.0. This indicates a slower growth rate in the services sector than anticipated.

Main Components Details

• Business Activity: Increased to 55.9 from 54.4, showing a rise in activity.
• New Orders: Dropped to 50.4 from 52.2, indicating a slowdown in new demand.
• Employment: Fell significantly to 46.2 from 53.9, suggesting contraction in employment levels.
• Supplier Deliveries: Decreased to 50.6 from 53.4, reflecting faster delivery times.
• Prices: Decreased to 60.9 from 62.6, showing a reduction in price pressures.
• Backlog of Orders: Declined to 47.4 from 51.7, indicating a decrease in order backlogs.
• New Export Orders: Dropped sharply to 45.8 from 52.1, suggesting a decline in export demand.
• Imports: Rose to 52.6 from 49.6, indicating an increase in import activity.
• Inventory Sentiment: Increased to 56.6 from 54.7, reflecting a more positive sentiment towards inventory levels.

Highlight

The March ADP Nonfarm Employment report showed a significant increase in employment, with a monthly change of 155,000 jobs, surpassing the forecast of 118,000 and the previous month's figure of 84,000. In terms of salary growth, the median salary for job stayers saw a slight decrease to 4.6% YoY from 4.7% previously. Meanwhile, job changers experienced a more notable decline in median salary growth to 6.5% YoY, marking the lowest level since February 2021.

Components

In the breakdown of employment changes by sector, Professional and Business Services saw a substantial increase, adding 57,000 jobs compared to 22,000 in the previous month. Financial Activities also experienced a notable rise, with 38,000 jobs added, up from 24,000. Conversely, the Construction sector saw a significant drop, adding only 6,000 jobs compared to 26,000 previously. The Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector continued to shed jobs, losing 6,000, although this was an improvement from the 31,000 jobs lost in the prior month. Natural Resources and Mining experienced a further decline, losing 3,000 jobs compared to a loss of 1,000 previously.

February JOLTS Job Openings Report

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, revealing a decline in job openings. The latest statistics show that job openings fell to 7,568,000, down from the previous 7,762,000 and below the forecasted 7,690,000. The job openings rate also decreased to 4.5% from the previous 4.7%.

Components Details

The quits rate remained steady at 2.0%, indicating no change from the previous month. Similarly, the hires rate held constant at 3.4%, showing stability in hiring activity. The layoffs rate also remained unchanged at 1.1%, suggesting consistent layoff activity compared to the previous period.

ISM Manufacturing PMI Overview

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March fell to 49.0, down from February's 50.3 and below the forecasted 49.5. This marks a contraction in the manufacturing sector as the index falls below the neutral 50.0 mark.

Components Details

• New Orders: The index dropped to 45.2 from 48.6, indicating a decline in demand.
• Production: Fell to 48.3 from 50.7, showing a slowdown in manufacturing output.
• Employment: Decreased to 44.7 from 47.6, suggesting reduced hiring activity.
• Supplier Deliveries: Slightly decreased to 53.5 from 54.5, indicating slower delivery times.
• Inventories: Increased to 53.4 from 49.9, showing a buildup in stock levels.
• Price: Rose significantly to 69.4 from 62.4, reaching the highest level since June 2022, indicating rising input costs.
• Backlog of Orders: Declined to 44.5 from 46.8, reflecting a decrease in unfilled orders.
• Exports: Dropped to 49.6 from 51.4, indicating a contraction in export orders.
• Imports: Fell to 50.1 from 52.6, showing a slowdown in import activity.

Highlight

The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator for March recorded a value of 95.2, falling short of the forecasted 97.0 and down from the previous 96.3. This indicates a weaker than expected economic sentiment across the Eurozone.

Main Countries and Sectors Details

• Germany showed a slight increase with a latest statistic of 89.4, up from 89.1.
• France experienced a decline, with the latest figure at 96.4 compared to the previous 98.5.
• Greece improved to 107.7 from 106.9.
• Italy dropped to 97.6 from 99.6, marking its lowest level since November 2023.
• Spain rose to 103.4 from 102.3.

In sector-specific indicators: - The Industrial Confidence Indicator improved slightly to -10.6 from -11.0. - The Services Confidence Indicator fell to 2.4 from 5.1, reaching its lowest level since April 2021. - The Consumer Confidence Indicator decreased to -14.5 from -13.6. - The Retail Confidence Indicator declined to -6.8 from -5.1. - The Construction Confidence Indicator saw a marginal decrease to -3.4 from -3.3.

Eurozone PMI Overview

The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for March has risen to 48.7, surpassing the forecast of 48.3 and marking the highest level since January 2023. Despite this improvement, the index remains below the 50 threshold, indicating contraction, a trend that has persisted since June 2022. Meanwhile, the Eurozone Services PMI slightly declined to 50.4, falling short of the expected 51.2. The Eurozone Composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, edged up to 50.4 from 50.2 in the previous month.

European Countries PMI Details

In Germany, the Manufacturing PMI improved to 48.3 from 46.5, while the Services PMI decreased to 50.2 from 51.1. France saw its Manufacturing PMI rise significantly to 48.9 from 45.8, and its Services PMI increased to 46.6 from 45.3. These figures reflect mixed performances across major European economies, with manufacturing showing signs of recovery, while services remain under pressure.

Highlight

The global economic expectation index for March recorded a slight decline, reaching 2.54%, down from the previous 2.57%. This marks the lowest level since March 2024.

Components

• US: The index decreased to 2.15% from 2.25%.
• Eurozone: The index slightly increased to 0.98% from 0.95%.
• UK: The index rose to 1.1% from 1.07%.
• Germany: The index increased to 0.48% from 0.42%.
• Japan: The index fell to 1.12% from 1.15%.
• China: The index dropped to 4.42% from 4.45%, marking the lowest level since May 2020.
• France: The index increased to 0.8% from 0.77%.
• Italy: The index rose to 0.68% from 0.65%.
• Australia: The index increased to 2.02% from 1.98%.
• Taiwan: The index rose to 2.9% from 2.74%.
• India: The index slightly increased to 6.35% from 6.33%.
• Brazil: The index decreased to 1.92% from 2.0%.
• Canada: The index rose to 1.65% from 1.62%.
• Indonesia: The index slightly increased to 5.03% from 5.02%.
• Thailand: The index remained stable at 2.78%.
• South Korea: The index slightly increased to 1.68% from 1.67%.
• Singapore: The index decreased to 2.52% from 2.56%.
• Malaysia: The index remained unchanged at 4.68%.

February Retail Sales Overview

The latest data on US retail sales for February showed a mixed performance. Retail sales increased by 0.2% on a month-over-month (MoM) basis, falling short of the forecasted 0.6% increase. Year-over-year (YoY), retail sales rose by 3.11%, down from the previous 3.91%.

Retail Sales Control Group

The retail sales control group, which excludes certain volatile items, showed a significant MoM increase of 1.0%, surpassing the forecast of 0.2%. On a YoY basis, the control group rose by 4.38%, up from the previous 3.67%.

Components Details

• Motor Vehicle sales grew by 3.06% YoY, down from 5.75%.
• Sporting Goods saw a decline of 3.04% YoY, worsening from the previous -2.04%.
• Electronics Appliance sales dropped significantly by 5.32% YoY, compared to a previous decline of 0.47%.
• Furniture sales increased by 5.48% YoY, up from 4.54%.
• Health & Personal Care sales saw a notable increase of 6.65% YoY, up from 4.41%.
• Nonstore Retailers experienced a 6.5% YoY increase, compared to 3.72% previously.
• Food & Drinking Services saw a YoY increase of 1.48%, down from 4.07%.

February CPI Overview

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February in the United States showed a lower-than-expected increase, both on a year-over-year (YoY) and month-over-month (MoM) basis. The CPI (NSA, YoY) rose by 2.82%, down from the previous 3.0% and below the forecast of 2.9%. Similarly, the CPI (SA, MoM) increased by 0.22%, compared to the previous 0.47% and the forecast of 0.3%.

Core CPI Details

The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also came in lower than anticipated. The Core CPI (NSA, YoY) was at 3.12%, a decrease from the previous 3.26% and below the forecast of 3.2%, marking the lowest level since April 2021. The Core CPI (SA, MoM) increased by 0.23%, compared to the previous 0.45% and the forecast of 0.3%.

Main Components YoY Details

Transportation Services saw a significant decrease, with the latest stats at 6.06%, down from 8.32%. Energy prices also declined, with a latest stat of -0.33%, compared to the previous 0.8%. Shelter costs decreased slightly to 4.24% from 4.4%. Education & Communication costs saw a decrease to 0.33% from 0.49%. Transportation costs fell to 1.58% from 3.06%.

Job Openings Surge

The US JOLTS Job Openings for January reported a total of 7,740,000, surpassing both the previous month's figure of 7,508,000 and the forecasted 7,650,000. This indicates a stronger-than-expected demand for labor in the market.

Job Openings Rate

The Job Openings Rate also saw a slight increase, rising to 4.6% from the previous 4.5%, suggesting a robust job market.

Components Details

The Quits Rate experienced a notable rise to 2.1% from 1.9%, reflecting increased worker confidence in finding new employment opportunities. Meanwhile, the Hires Rate remained steady at 3.4%. The Layoffs Rate decreased to 1.0% from 1.1%, indicating fewer involuntary separations in the workforce.

Highlight

The latest US nonfarm payrolls report for February showed a monthly change of 151.0k, falling short of the forecasted 159.0k and slightly above the previous month's 125.0k. The unemployment rate increased to 4.1%, which was higher than both the previous and forecasted rates of 4.0%.

Components

• Mining & Logging: Increased by 5.0k, recovering from a previous decline of -4.0k.
• Construction: Rose significantly to 19.0k from 2.0k.
• Manufacturing: Improved to 10.0k from a previous -5.0k.
• Retail Trade: Declined by -6.3k, down from a previous increase of 29.5k.
• Financial Activities: Notably increased to 21.0k from 14.0k.
• Professional & Business Services: Improved slightly to -2.0k from -39.0k.
• Education & Health Services: Increased to 73.0k from 66.0k.
• Leisure & Hospitality: Declined further to -16.0k from -14.0k.
• Government: Decreased to 11.0k from 44.0k.
• Goods Production: Rebounded to 34.0k from a previous -7.0k.
• Private Service: Increased to 106.0k from 88.0k.

ISM Services PMI Surpasses Expectations

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for February rose to 53.5, surpassing both the previous month's reading of 52.8 and the forecast of 52.5. This indicates a stronger-than-expected expansion in the services sector.

Components

• New Orders increased to 52.2 from 51.3, showing a positive trend in demand.
• Employment rose significantly to 53.9 from 52.3, marking the highest level since August 2023.
• Prices saw an increase to 62.6 from 60.4, indicating rising costs.
• Backlog of Orders experienced a notable rise to 51.7 from 44.8, suggesting an accumulation of pending work.
• Inventory improved to 50.6 from 47.5, showing a shift towards balance.
• Imports slightly decreased to 49.6 from 49.8, remaining below the neutral mark.
• Inventory Sentiment rose to 54.7 from 53.5, indicating a more positive outlook on inventory levels.

Employment Highlights

The latest ADP Nonfarm Employment report indicates a significant slowdown in job growth for February, with a monthly change of 77,000 jobs, falling short of the forecasted 141,000 and the previous month's 186,000. The median salary for job stayers remained steady at a 4.7% YoY increase, while job changers saw a slight decrease in median salary growth to 6.7% YoY from 6.8%.

Components Details

• Construction sector saw a notable increase with 26,000 jobs added, up from 15,000 previously.
• Education and Health Services experienced a decline, losing 28,000 jobs compared to a previous gain of 22,000.
• Financial Activities added 26,000 jobs, an increase from 15,000 in the prior month.
• Information sector saw a decrease, losing 14,000 jobs compared to a previous gain of 16,000.
• Leisure and Hospitality added 41,000 jobs, down from 54,000 previously.
• Manufacturing rebounded with an addition of 18,000 jobs, up from a loss of 17,000.
• Natural Resources and Mining lost 2,000 jobs, down from a previous gain of 4,000.
• Trade, Transportation, and Utilities saw a significant decline, losing 33,000 jobs compared to a previous gain of 47,000.

ISM Manufacturing PMI Overview

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its February Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which showed a decline to 50.3, down from January's 50.9 and below the forecasted 50.6. This marks a slower pace of growth in the manufacturing sector.

Main Components Details

• New Orders: Dropped significantly to 48.6 from 55.1, indicating a contraction in new demand.
• Production: Fell to 50.7 from 52.5, showing a deceleration in production activity.
• Employment: Decreased to 47.6 from 50.3, reflecting a reduction in manufacturing employment.
• Supplier Deliveries: Increased to 54.5 from 50.9, suggesting slower delivery times.
• Inventories: Rose to 49.9 from 45.9, nearing the neutral mark.
• Price: Jumped to 62.4 from 54.9, reaching the highest level since June 2022, indicating rising input costs.
• Backlog of Orders: Improved slightly to 46.8 from 44.9, though still in contraction territory.
• Exports: Declined to 51.4 from 52.4, but remained in expansion.
• Imports: Increased to 52.6 from 51.1, showing stronger import activity.

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator

The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator for February recorded a value of 96.3, surpassing both the previous month's figure of 95.3 and the forecasted value of 96.0. This indicates a stronger-than-expected improvement in economic sentiment across the Eurozone.

Main Countries and Sectors Details

In Germany, the sentiment indicator rose to 89.3 from 88.1, while France saw an increase to 98.6 from 96.3. Greece experienced a decline, with the indicator dropping to 106.9 from 108.6. Italy's sentiment indicator slightly decreased to 99.8 from 100.2, and Spain also saw a decline to 102.3 from 104.3.

Among the sector-specific indicators, the Industrial Confidence Indicator improved to -11.4 from -12.7. The Services Confidence Indicator slightly decreased to 6.2 from 6.7. The Consumer Confidence Indicator improved to -13.6 from -14.2. The Retail Confidence Indicator remained unchanged at -5.3, while the Construction Confidence Indicator slightly worsened to -3.5 from -3.0.

Global Overview

The February MM Economic Expectation Index reported a slight decline in global economic expectations, with the latest statistics showing a decrease to 2.55% from the previous 2.58%.

Key Country Insights

In the United States, the index slightly decreased to 2.17% from 2.18%. The Eurozone saw a similar trend, with a drop to 0.95% from 1.02%. The United Kingdom's index fell to 1.15% from 1.22%, while Germany's index decreased to 0.42% from 0.45%.

Japan's economic expectation index also saw a minor decline to 1.15% from 1.18%. China's index experienced a slight drop to 4.45% from 4.47%, marking its lowest level since May 2020.

Australia's index rose slightly to 1.97% from 1.93%, while Taiwan's index decreased to 2.74% from 2.77%. India's index saw a minor decrease to 6.33% from 6.36%.

Canada's index dropped to 1.73% from 1.8%, while Indonesia's index slightly increased to 5.02% from 5.0%. Thailand's index fell to 2.95% from 2.98%, and South Korea's index rose to 1.75% from 1.72%.

Singapore's index decreased to 2.56% from 2.58%, and Malaysia's index slightly declined to 4.67% from 4.68%.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for February reported a reading of 47.3, surpassing both the previous month's figure of 46.6 and the forecast of 46.9. Despite the improvement, the index remains below the 50-mark, indicating contraction in the sector since June 2022.

Eurozone Services PMI

The Services PMI in the Eurozone fell to 50.7, below both the previous month's 51.3 and the forecast of 51.5. This suggests a slower expansion in the services sector than anticipated.

Eurozone Composite PMI

The Composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, remained unchanged at 50.2, indicating stagnant growth in the overall economy.

Germany PMI Details

Germany's Manufacturing PMI rose to 46.1 from 45.0, showing signs of improvement. However, the Services PMI slightly decreased to 52.2 from 52.5.

France PMI Details

France's Manufacturing PMI edged up to 45.5 from 45.0, while the Services PMI saw a significant drop to 44.5 from 48.2, indicating a notable contraction in the services sector.

Retail Sales Overview

The US retail sales figures for January showed a significant decline, with a decrease of 0.88%, missing the forecasted decline of 0.2%. This marks the lowest level since March 2023. On a basis, retail sales grew by 4.2%, slightly down from the previous 4.36%.

The retail sales control group, which excludes certain volatile items, also fell by 0.82% , against a forecast of 0.3%, and marked the lowest level since March 2023. The growth for the control group was 3.74%, down from 4.41% previously.

Components Details

Motor Vehicle sales saw a decline, with a growth of 6.38%, down from 8.29%. Sporting Goods experienced a significant drop, with a decrease of 4.09%, compared to a previous increase of 1.92%. Electronics Appliance sales remained almost flat at 0.01%, a sharp decline from 5.54% previously. Furniture sales also decreased, showing a growth of 3.68%, down from 7.65%.

Conversely, Gasoline Stations reported a increase of 2.05%, up from a previous decline of 0.63%. Food & Drinking Services showed strong growth, with a increase of 5.42%, up from 3.27%.

CPI Overview

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January indicates a higher-than-expected increase in inflation rates. The US CPI (NSA, YoY) recorded a rise to 3.0%, surpassing both the previous 2.89% and the forecasted 2.9%. Similarly, the US CPI (SA, MoM) increased to 0.47%, exceeding the previous 0.36% and the forecasted 0.3%.

Core CPI

The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also showed a notable rise. The Core CPI (NSA, YoY) reached 3.26%, above the previous 3.24% and the forecasted 3.1%. The Core CPI (SA, MoM) was reported at 0.45%, significantly higher than the previous 0.21% and the forecasted 0.3%.

Components Details

Several components showed significant changes. Transportation Services surged to 8.32% from the previous 7.47%. Medical Care Commodities saw a notable increase to 2.29% from 0.49%. Energy prices rebounded to 0.8% from a previous decline of -0.31%. Conversely, Apparel saw a decrease to 0.47% from 1.32%, and Shelter dropped to 4.4% from 4.62%.

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Surpasses Forecast

The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator for January has been reported at 95.3, surpassing both the previous month's figure of 93.8 and the forecast of 94.1. This indicates a stronger-than-expected improvement in economic sentiment across the Eurozone.

Main Countries and Sectors Details

• Germany: Economic sentiment improved to 88.1 from 86.9.
• France: Notable increase in sentiment to 96.2 from 92.9.
• Greece: Continued positive sentiment at 108.6, up from 106.4.
• Italy: Sentiment rose to 100.2 from 98.4.
• Spain: Economic sentiment increased to 104.4 from 102.9.

Sector Confidence Indicators

• Industrial Confidence: Improved to -12.9 from -14.1.
• Services Confidence: Increased to 6.9 from 6.0.
• Consumer Confidence: Slightly better at -14.2 compared to -14.5.
• Retail Confidence: Decreased to -5.0 from -4.5.
• Construction Confidence: Improved to -3.0 from -3.8, marking the highest level since December 2023.

Job Openings Decline

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a decline in job openings for December, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicating 7.6 million openings. This figure is lower than both the previous month's 8.156 million and the forecasted 8.01 million, suggesting a slowdown in job availability.

Job Openings Rate

The job openings rate also saw a decrease, falling to 4.5% from the previous 4.9%. This drop reflects a reduction in the number of available positions relative to the labor force.

Components Details

The quits rate remained steady at 2.0%, indicating that the rate at which employees voluntarily left their jobs did not change. Similarly, the hires rate held at 3.4%, showing stability in the number of new hires. The layoffs rate also remained unchanged at 1.1%, suggesting no significant increase in involuntary job separations during the period.

Highlight

The US ADP Nonfarm Employment report for January showed a monthly change of 183,000 jobs, surpassing the forecast of 148,000 and the previous month's figure of 176,000. The report indicates a stronger-than-expected job market. Additionally, the ADP Job Stayer Median Salary saw a slight increase to 4.7% , up from 4.6% previously. Meanwhile, the ADP Job Changer Median Salary slightly decreased to 6.8% from 6.9%.

Components

In the ADP Nonfarm Employment Main Components, several sectors showed notable changes. The Leisure and Hospitality sector saw a significant increase, adding 54,000 jobs compared to 40,000 in the previous month. Trade, Transportation, and Utilities also experienced a substantial rise, with 56,000 jobs added, up from 21,000 previously. Conversely, the Manufacturing sector reported a decrease of 13,000 jobs, a sharp decline from the 8,000 jobs added in the prior month. The Information sector saw a notable increase, adding 18,000 jobs compared to 8,000 previously. Construction jobs decreased significantly, with only 3,000 jobs added compared to 18,000 in the previous month.

Highlight

The latest US job report for January indicates a significant slowdown in job growth, with Nonfarm Payrolls increasing by 143,000, falling short of the forecasted 169,000 and previous month's 307,000. The Unemployment Rate improved slightly to 4.0%, better than both the previous and forecasted rate of 4.1%.

Components

• Mining & Logging experienced a decrease of 7,000 jobs, down from a previous decrease of 3,000.
• Construction added 4,000 jobs, a drop from the previous month's 13,000.
• Manufacturing saw a modest increase of 3,000 jobs, recovering from a previous loss of 12,000.
• Transportation added only 1,100 jobs, a significant decline from the previous 21,500.
• Professional & Business Services saw a decrease of 11,000 jobs, compared to a previous increase of 31,000.
• Leisure & Hospitality experienced a decline of 3,000 jobs, down from a previous increase of 49,000.
• Private Service sector added 111,000 jobs, significantly lower than the previous 275,000.

US GDP Growth Slows

The US GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth for Q4 came in at 2.3%, falling short of the forecasted 2.7% and down from the previous quarter's 3.1%. On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, the GDP growth was 2.5%, slightly lower than the previous 2.7%.

GDP Growth by Component

Consumption showed a robust increase, with the latest stats at 4.2%, up from the previous 3.7%. However, investment saw a significant decline, with the latest stats at -5.6%, compared to a previous increase of 0.8%. Government expenditures also decreased, with the latest stats at 2.5%, down from 5.1% in the previous quarter. Both exports and imports showed a negative growth of -0.8%, a stark contrast to the previous quarter's growth of 9.6% and 10.7%, respectively.

Eurozone PMI Overview

The Eurozone's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reports for January show mixed results across sectors. The Manufacturing PMI recorded a value of 46.6, surpassing both the previous month's figure of 45.1 and the forecast of 45.6. Despite this improvement, the index remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating contraction in the sector since June 2022. Meanwhile, the Services PMI slightly decreased to 51.3 from 51.6, falling short of the forecasted 51.4. The Composite PMI, which combines both manufacturing and services, rose to 50.2 from 49.6, signaling a marginal expansion.

European Countries PMI Details

Germany's Manufacturing PMI improved to 45.0 from 42.5, while its Services PMI increased to 52.5 from 51.2, indicating growth in the services sector. In France, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 45.0 from 41.9, showing some recovery, though still in contraction territory. However, the French Services PMI declined to 48.2 from 49.3, indicating a further contraction in the services sector.

ISM Services PMI Overview

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January stood at 52.8, falling short of the forecasted 54.2 and down from December's 54.1. This indicates a slower expansion in the services sector than anticipated.

Main Components Details

• Business Activity: Dropped to 54.5 from 58.2.
• New Orders: Decreased to 51.3 from 54.2.
• Employment: Increased slightly to 52.3 from 51.4.
• Inventory: Fell to 47.5 from 49.4, indicating contraction.
• Prices: Declined to 60.4 from 64.4.
• Backlog of Orders: Slightly down to 44.8 from 44.3.
• New Export Orders: Rose to 52.0 from 50.1.
• Imports: Dropped to 49.8 from 50.7.
• Inventory Sentiment: Marginally up to 53.5 from 53.4.

The data reflects mixed performance across various components, with notable declines in business activity and new orders, while employment and new export orders showed improvement.

ISM Manufacturing PMI Surges

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.9 in January, surpassing both the previous month's figure of 49.2 and the forecast of 49.3. This marks the highest level since August 2022, indicating a stronger-than-expected expansion in the manufacturing sector.

New Orders and Production Increase

New orders surged to 55.1, up from 52.1, reaching the highest level since February 2022. Production also increased, registering at 52.5 compared to the previous 49.9.

Employment and Supplier Deliveries

Employment showed a significant rise to 50.3 from 45.4, while supplier deliveries slightly improved to 50.9 from 50.1.

Inventories and Prices

Inventories decreased to 45.9 from 48.4, while prices saw an increase, moving to 54.9 from 52.5.

Exports and Imports

Exports climbed to 52.4 from 50.0, and imports rose to 51.1 from 49.7, indicating growth in both areas.

Backlog of Orders

The backlog of orders decreased to 44.9 from 45.9, suggesting a reduction in pending orders.

Highlight

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December showed a YoY increase of 2.89%, slightly below the forecast of 2.9% and previous figure of 2.75%. On a MoM basis, the CPI rose by 0.39%, again falling short of the expected 0.4% and the previous 0.31%. The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also came in lower than anticipated, with a YoY rise of 3.24% compared to the forecast of 3.3% and previous 3.32%. The MoM Core CPI increased by 0.23%, below the expected 0.3% and the previous 0.31%.

Components

In the detailed breakdown, Transportation Services saw a significant YoY increase to 7.48% from 7.04%. Energy prices decreased by 0.39%, an improvement from the previous -3.15%. Shelter costs rose by 4.62%, slightly down from 4.78%. Medical Care Services experienced a decline to 3.37% from 3.7%, while Recreation costs fell to 1.1% from 1.48%. Transportation costs increased to 1.73% from 0.41%, and Medical Care overall saw a decrease to 2.84% from 3.08%.

Highlight

The US job market showed stronger-than-expected growth in December, with Nonfarm Payrolls increasing by 256,000, surpassing the forecast of 164,000 and the previous month's 212,000. The Unemployment Rate also showed improvement, dropping to 4.1% from the previous 4.2%, against expectations of remaining steady at 4.2%.

Components

Retail Trade experienced a significant rebound, adding 43,400 jobs compared to a loss of 29,200 in the previous month. Professional & Business Services also saw a notable increase, with 28,000 jobs added, up from 9,000 previously. Education & Health Services, while still growing, added 80,000 jobs, slightly down from 87,000. Manufacturing, however, saw a decline, losing 13,000 jobs after gaining 25,000 in the prior month. Goods Production overall saw a decrease of 8,000 jobs, contrasting with a previous increase of 34,000. Private Service sectors showed robust growth, adding 231,000 jobs compared to 148,000 in the previous month.

Retail Sales Overview

The latest data on US retail sales for December indicates a slower growth than anticipated. Retail sales increased by 0.45% , falling short of the forecasted 0.6% and down from the previous month's 0.77%. On a basis, retail sales rose by 3.92%, slightly lower than the previous 4.12%.

Retail Sales Control Group

The retail sales control group, which excludes certain volatile items, showed a stronger performance with a 0.67% increase , surpassing the forecast of 0.4% and up from the previous 0.41%. On a basis, the control group grew by 4.1%, compared to 4.51% previously.

Components Details

• Motor Vehicle sales saw a significant increase of 8.37% , up from 7.38%.
• Sporting Goods rebounded with a 1.8% increase, compared to a previous decline of -3.22%.
• Building Material & Garden Equipment sales decreased by -1.76%, down from a 2.09% increase.
• Electronics Appliance sales rose sharply by 5.81%, compared to 2.09% previously.
• Furniture sales surged by 8.36%, up from 2.79%.
• Gasoline Stations reported a smaller decline of -1.25%, compared to -3.71% previously.
• Nonstore Retailers experienced a decrease in growth, posting a 6.0% increase compared to 9.79% previously.