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Manufacturing cycle-new orders minus customer inventory ×

Save Manufacturing cycle-new orders minus customer inventory

由於全球化下工業分工明確，我們可以藉由中國、台灣及美國三者的新訂單減客戶庫存判斷製造業循環的階段。

中國在分工中擔任初級加工的任務，對於製造業循環最為敏感，因此當客戶存貨低檔、企業有意願增加新訂單時，會率先反應使新訂單減成品庫存差額上升。而美國作為消費大國，為製造業循環的終端，若企業回補庫存意願回落，新訂單減客戶庫存差額下降，則可判斷製造業循環應將走入下降期。

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  • 中國-官方製造業採購經理人指數[PMI]-新訂單 - 中國-官方製造業採購經理人指數[PMI]-成品庫存
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  • 美國-ISM製造業指數[PMI]-新訂單 - 美國-ISM製造業指數[PMI]-客戶端存貨
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