Save US Conference Board Leading Economic Index vs. GDP

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US include:

1. Average weekly hours, manufacturing
2. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
3. Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials,
4. ISM Index of New Orders
5. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
6. Building permits, new private housing units
7. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
8. Leading Credit Index™
9. Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
10. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

The US economy is likely to recess in the next 2 to 3 quarters when LEI YoY falls below 0.