National Development Council releases monthly manufacturing PMI and service PMI (aka NMI).
Manufacturing PMI is composed of 5 subindices, each accounting for 20%: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
PMI over 50 suggests the industry is expanding, while under 50 suggests it's contracting.
PMI is composed of five subindices with equal weights: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
Other subindices are production materials, customers' inventories, new export orders, backlog of orders, and imports.
Taiwan PMI surveys six sectors including the foods & textiles industry, the transportation equipment industry, the electronic & optical industry, the basic materials industry, the electrical & machinery equipment industry, and the chemical, biological & medical industry.
Non-manufacturing index (NMI) surveys purchasing managers in the service sector. A reading over 50 means the industry is expanding, and a reading under 50 means the industry is contracting.
Taiwanese NMI is composed of four subindices: business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. Other subindices are inventories, inventory sentiment, prices, new export exports, imports, service charge, and backlog of orders.
Taiwanese NMI surveys purchasing managers across eight sectors: accommodation and food services, wholesale trade, education, professional, scientific and technical activities, construction and real estate, information, communication and broadcasting, transportation and storage, financial and insurance, and retail trade.
This chart shows the 6-month outlooks from the manufacturing sector and the service sector.
NDC releases manufacturing PMI, backlog of orders, and customers' inventories at the same time. A reading over 50 suggests a buildup in the backlog of orders, which accumulates due to low production capacity and/or increasing new orders. A reading below 50 of customers' inventories suggests undersupply.
Inventories fluctuate for two reasons:
1. The company wants to stock up because they have a positive outlook. Or they want to clear inventories due to negative outlook.
2. The sale isn't great as expected, or better than expected.
When customers' inventories are too high, the customer might have a positive outlook for the economy, or demand is decreasing.
Taiwan industrial production index includes mining and quarrying, manufacturing, electricity and gas supply, and water supply.
Base year: 2016
Industrial production index is based on four industries (weight) in Taiwan: manufacturing (92.5%), mining and quarrying (0.27%), electricity and gas supply (6.6%), and water supply (0.6%).
Manufacturing production accounts for above 90% of Industrial Production Index.
Main industries (weightings) include electronic parts and component (40%), computer, electronic and optical products (4-5%), chemicals (7-8%), basic metals (5-6%), machinery and equipment (4%), and motor vehicles and parts
(2-3%).
SEMI billings report reports on North America-based semiconductor equipment manufacturer. SEMI billings affects tech stocks around the world as well as major Asian economies that export electronics.
*SEMI stopped releasing book-to-bill ratio and order amount from 2017 on.
365 days
* (average inventory
/ costs of sales)
= Days sales in inventory
Days sales in inventory (DSI) is the time required for a company to turn inventory into sales. IC design houses usually place early orders to avoid long lead times; however, when demand slows down, inventory builds up. DSI represents the inventory cycle in the IC sector.
(Revenue
- Costs)
/ Revenue
* 100
= Gross margin
Gross margin measures the value of a company's products and branding. When gross margin rises, production capacity is running tight. When gross margin drops, production capacity is easing.
由製造業 PMI 的客戶庫存可領先觀察目前完成品的庫存堆積狀況。當客戶庫存出現堆積時有兩種情況，一是代表市場需求開始降低，導致庫存增加，一是顯示下游客戶看好未來景氣，主動增加存貨。反之，當客戶存貨過低時，則代表市場需求增加，庫存消化速度快，但也可能是下游客戶仍對景氣抱持謹慎看法，故降低存貨水準，應搭配新訂單和出口訂單等需求指標做判斷。
*注意「客戶存貨」是指已銷售給客戶的完成品存貨，「存貨」則是指廠商基於生產所購入的原物料存貨水準。
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