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Save US Retail Sales vs. Car Sales

Car and maintenance sales take up a total of 21% of retail sales, so car sales are indicative of America's economic conditions.

According to NAICS Code, vehicle sales include sales of new, used and display cars (including passenger car, SUV, pick up truck and light truck), vehicle components, after-sales services and maintenance, vehicle registry and financing services.

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Latest Stats
  • US Retail Sales：total (SA, YoY)
    2021-03
    28.16%
  • US Retail Sales : Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Sales (SA, YoY)
    2021-03
    71.10%
Source
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Save US Retail Sales Items (MoM)

35% of retail sales are durable goods and 65% are non-durable goods

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Latest Stats
  • Motor Vehicle
    2021-03
    15.10%
  • Sporting Goods
    2021-03
    23.48%
  • Building Material & Garden Equipment
    2021-03
    12.12%
  • Electronics Appliance
    2021-03
    10.54%
  • Furniture
    2021-03
    5.86%
  • Gasoline Stations
    2021-03
    10.88%
  • General Merchandise
    2021-03
    9.05%
  • Clothing
    2021-03
    18.25%
  • Health & Personal Care
    2021-03
    5.73%
  • Food & Beverage
    2021-03
    0.69%
  • Nonstore Retailers
    2021-03
    5.99%
  • Food & Drinking Services
    2021-03
    13.39%
Source
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Save US Retail Sales Components (YoY)

35% of retail sales are durable goods and 65% of non-durable goods

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Latest Stats
  • Motor Vehicle
    2021-03
    71.10%
  • Sporting Goods
    2021-03
    73.53%
  • Building Material & Garden Equipment
    2021-03
    29.44%
  • Electronics Appliance
    2021-03
    28.47%
  • Furniture
    2021-03
    46.81%
  • Gasoline Stations
    2021-03
    34.84%
  • General Merchandise
    2021-03
    4.64%
  • Clothing
    2021-03
    101.11%
  • Health & Personal Care
    2021-03
    5.54%
  • Food & Beverage
    2021-03
    -11.83%
  • Nonstore Retailers
    2021-03
    28.70%
  • Food & Drinking Services
    2021-03
    35.96%
Source
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Save US Consumer Confidence

There are two consumer confidence indices, released respectively by The Conference Board and University of Michigan, both of which provide a comprehensive view on the prevailing economic conditions, income, income expectations and consumer sentiments towards shopping.

The main distinction between the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey and the US Consumer Confidence Questionnaire is that the former focuses on how consumers feel about the consumption of "durable goods", while the latter is closely related to "general consumption" and "employment."

When the gap between the two results widens, it more often than not indicates that Fed is expected to raise interest rates due to better economic outlook. Then, heightened pressure on the borrowers will lead to a reduction in consumption of durable goods. UM's consumer sentiment might fall, while consumer confidence remains high as the labor market, general consumptions, and stock market are still strong.

After several rate hikes, the impact on the consumption of durable goods extends. Companies begin to cut down investment and personnel cost, causing the labor market and the consuming power in the private sector to stagger. When consumers are losing confidence, the gap between the two survey results narrows down, and stock market is often faced with downward pressure.

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Latest Stats
  • US CB Consumer Confidence Index
    2021-03
    109.70
  • US UMichigan Consumer Sentiment
    2021-04
    86.50
  • US CB - UMich Consumer Confidence
    0.00
Source
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Save US Disposable Personal Income

Personal Income is income that people receive from wages and salaries, transfer payments from the government and companies, and other sources. People include all persons, non-profit organizations, private non-insurance security funds, and private trust funds, etc.

Personal income = Compensation of employees + Proprietor's income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustment + Rental income of persons and capital consumption adjustment + Personal income receipts on assets + Personal current transfer receipts - Contribution for domestic government social insurance

Disposable personal income = PI - Personal current taxes

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Latest Stats
  • US Real Disposable Personal Income (SAAR, L)
    2021-02
    15,681.00b
  • US Real Disposable Personal Income (SAAR, YoY, L)
    2021-02
    3.42%
Source
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Save US Real PCE: Goods (SAAR, YoY)

Real personal consumption expenditure means the amount money spent in goods and services. Goods include durable goods like cars and furniture, and non-durable goods like food and drinks.

Although the percentage of durable goods purchased is much lower than non-durable goods, durable goods can better reflect consumer's confidence and willingness to spend than non-durable goods. An increasing amount of durable goods (yellow line) means consumption will continue to grow.

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Latest Stats
  • US Real PCE (SAAR, YoY)
    2021-02
    -2.11%
  • US Real Personal Consumption Expenditures - Goods (YoY)
    2021-02
    9.01%
  • US Real Personal Consumption Expenditures - Durable Goods (YoY)
    2021-02
    16.14%
Source
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Save US Real PCE: Goods & Services

Real personal consumption expenditure means the amount money people spent in goods and services. Goods include durable goods like cars and furniture, and non-durable goods like food and drinks. Services refer to expenditures imputed for a period of time, eg. housing, medical service, transportation, etc.

PCE reflects consumption, which accounts for 70% of US GDP. It serves as a good indicator for US's economic growth.

Durable goods are expensive and long-lasting. High demand for double goods usually suggests that consumers are optimistic about the future and willing to spend. Manufacturers will begin to restock at the same time.

Services account for over 60% of consumption. Moreover, more than 70% of the US labor force work in the service industry. Consumption plays an important role in supporting both the job market and economic growth.

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Latest Stats
  • US Real PCE: Goods (SAAR)
    2021-02
    5,251.20b
  • US Real PCE: Services (SAAR)
    2021-02
    8,022.30b
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