| Registered Country | Commodity ETFs | Price | 1 Month | YTD | Expense ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
||||||
| Invesco CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust | $120.35 | -1.68% | -7.49% | 0.40% | ||
|
|
||||||
| #Currency: GBP | ||||||
MMFI for AUD is an integral index created by MacroMicro for British pound fundamentals. When it goes up, it means the fundamentals of British pounds are looking good.
Components of GBP MMFI include credit risk spread, GBP COT Index, etc. Weight of each component might be adjusted according to the latest market conditions.
| Registered Country | Commodity ETFs | Price | 1 Month | YTD | Expense ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
||||||
| Invesco CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust | $120.35 | -1.68% | -7.49% | 0.40% | ||
|
|
||||||
| #Currency: GBP | ||||||
The base rate is part of the Bank of England's monetary policy to meet the targets of stable inflation and maximum employment. BoE reduces the base rate when then economy declines, by which lowers the interest rate for banks to deposit cash reserves, so that the funds could be released to the private sector, including corporates and households. Investment and consumption are likely to increase, so are inflation and employment rate
Possible scenarios:
BoE lowering base rate increases supply of pounds and GBP/USD goes down.
BoE raising base rate decreases supply of pounds and GBP/USD gains.
| Registered Country | Commodity ETFs | Price | 1 Month | YTD | Expense ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
||||||
| Invesco CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust | $120.35 | -1.68% | -7.49% | 0.40% | ||
|
|
||||||
| #Currency: GBP | ||||||
Producer price index (PPI) reflects the costs of goods while consumer price index (CPI) reflects the prices of goods at the end market. The spread between PPI and CPI reflects the rising costs of goods that were transferred from producers to consumers. It serves as a leading indicator for inflation.
When inflation spread declines, BoE is likely to keep base rates low. GBP/USD might go down.
When inflation spread rises, BoE might raise base rates to keep inflation within an acceptable range, and GBP/USD might gain.
| Registered Country | Commodity ETFs | Price | 1 Month | YTD | Expense ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
||||||
| Invesco CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust | $120.35 | -1.68% | -7.49% | 0.40% | ||
|
|
||||||
| #Currency: GBP | ||||||
Sterling Overnight Index Average benchmark (SONIA), starting in 2022, replaces LIBOR as interbank lending rates. SONIA rising means higher costs of borrowing, reduced liquidity, and higher value of pound sterling.
| Registered Country | Commodity ETFs | Price | 1 Month | YTD | Expense ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
||||||
| Invesco CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust | $120.35 | -1.68% | -7.49% | 0.40% | ||
|
|
||||||
| #Currency: GBP | ||||||
Fed excess reserves
- BoE excess reserves in USD
= US - UK excess deposit allowance
Excess reserves is the liquidity available for financial institutions. In a loose monetary policy environment, the higher the reserves the higher the surplus of the monetary supply, which might cause the value of the current to fall.
When the spread between Fed and BoE's excess reserves rises, US dollar supply is higher than British pound supply, leading to higher value of the British pound against the US dollar.
| Registered Country | Commodity ETFs | Price | 1 Month | YTD | Expense ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
||||||
| Invesco CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust | $120.35 | -1.68% | -7.49% | 0.40% | ||
|
|
||||||
| #Currency: GBP | ||||||
Merrill Lynch CCC-grade (or lower) high-yield bond actual yield
- UK 10-year government bond yield
= MM's UK credit risk spread
When the spread widens, expectations for higher defaults from corporates rise, which would cause higher demand for risk-hedging instruments such as the US dollar, the US bonds, and gold. Higher demand for the US dollar causes the GBP/USD to decline.
| Registered Country | Commodity ETFs | Price | 1 Month | YTD | Expense ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
||||||
| Invesco CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust | $120.35 | -1.68% | -7.49% | 0.40% | ||
|
|
||||||
| #Currency: GBP | ||||||
UK 10-year government bond yield
- Germany 10-year government bond yield
= UK and Germany yield spread
Long-term government bond yield reflects the economic growth and inflation so the yield spread between two countries reflects the economic strength between them.
Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone, so it could also represent the overall economic strength of the Eurozone.
| Registered Country | Commodity ETFs | Price | 1 Month | YTD | Expense ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
||||||
| Invesco CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust | $120.35 | -1.68% | -7.49% | 0.40% | ||
|
|
||||||
| #Currency: GBP | ||||||
UK 10-year government bond yield
- US 10-year government bond yield
= UK and US yield spread
Long-term government bond yield reflects the economic growth and inflation so the yield spread between two countries reflects the economic strength between them.
| Registered Country | Commodity ETFs | Price | 1 Month | YTD | Expense ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
||||||
| Invesco CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust | $120.35 | -1.68% | -7.49% | 0.40% | ||
|
|
||||||
| #Currency: GBP | ||||||
US Gfk consumer confidence index (CCI) reflects consumers' views on future economic growth and their willingness to shop. Gfk CCI is the leading indicator for economic growth as consumption accounts for over 60% of UK's GDP.
Higher consumer confidence means a better economic outlook and supports the pound.
| Registered Country | Commodity ETFs | Price | 1 Month | YTD | Expense ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
||||||
| Invesco CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust | $120.35 | -1.68% | -7.49% | 0.40% | ||
|
|
||||||
| #Currency: GBP | ||||||
UK ISM PMI for service
- US ISM PMI for service
= UK - US PMI for service spread
Both countries are consumption-based economy with over 60% of GDP being consumption. When the spread stays in the positive territory, UK's service sector shows stronger performance than that of the US, which supports the pound.
| Registered Country | Commodity ETFs | Price | 1 Month | YTD | Expense ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
||||||
| Invesco CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust | $120.35 | -1.68% | -7.49% | 0.40% | ||
|
|
||||||
| #Currency: GBP | ||||||
Eurozone PMI for service
- UK PMI for service
= UK and Eurozone PMI for service spread
UK and the major economies in the Eurozone (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) are service-based economy. When the spread stays in the positive territory, Eurozone's service sector shows stronger performance than that of the UK, which supports the Euro.
| Registered Country | Commodity ETFs | Price | 1 Month | YTD | Expense ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
||||||
| Invesco CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust | $120.35 | -1.68% | -7.49% | 0.40% | ||
|
|
||||||
| #Currency: GBP | ||||||
Speculators' net positions
- Commercials' net positions
= GBP COT Index
GBP COT Index going up means large traders are bullish about the British pounds.
See more on CoT index: https://www.macromicro.me/cot-flow
Feedback