Save PMI & NMI: 6-month Outlook

This chart shows the 6-month outlooks from the manufacturing sector and the service sector.

Save US Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims

A small increase of jobless claims means the labor market is still stable.

Number of continuing claims are released later than number of initial claims by one week.

Save US Job Openings, Quits & Hires

The JOLTS indicates labor market sluggishness and thus is closely watched by the Fed.

Save S&P500 EPS

S&P500 EPS 綜合了循環性消費、非循環性消費、工業、科技產業、原材料產業、通訊產業、房地產行業、能源、公用事業、金融業、醫療照護等十一項行業整體 EPS 的表現。

＊當季(含）以後的 EPS 數據為 S&P Dow Jones Indices 官網 forward 預測值

Save 美國-成屋庫存

Save US House Vacancy Rate

US Census Bureau releases quarterly rented/sold house vacancy rate. Vacancy rate is widely used by the US government, builders, real estate brokers, and economic institutions.

Vacancy rate represents the ratio of vacant houses to all houses throughout out the year, so the lower it gets, the better the housing market will be.

Save China Manufacturing PMI

China's PMI is composed of new orders index (20%), production index (25%), employment index (20%), supplier delivery index (15%) and raw materials inventory index (10%). Benchmark reading of PMI is 50, above which suggests business expansion in the industry. There are two PMI data in China, one of which is official and the other is published by Caixin. The former represents large enterprises while the latter represents private enterprises.

Save 台灣-出口-電子零組件

Save US Retail Sales

Consumption takes up 70% of US GDP, and retail sales account for nearly 40% of GDP consumption, with the rest of 60% being service sales. US retail sales indicate the health of the economy.

Save Global Flight Tracking

The number of daily flights is calculated by Flightradar counting the number of flights on the website.

Commercial flights: Commercial passenger flights + cargo flights + charter flights + some business jet flights.
Total flights: Commercial flights above + rest of business jet flights + private flights + gliders + most helicopter flights + most ambulance flights + government flights + some military flights + drones

Save US CPI vs. WTI Crude Futures

In the past decade, crude oil futures has a positive correlation with CPI YoY, and their correlation coefficient is nearly 0.6.

Save 美國-美債平衡通膨率

疫情至今，許多主要經濟體已逐步重啟經濟，美國重啟進程落後歐亞，信心面成為股市重要的支撐力道。M平方選擇美債平衡通膨率作為觀察指標，預期通膨是快速反應經濟信心的重要依據，透過美債平衡通膨率的走勢可以了解市場對經濟恢復的信心，現在就讓MM研究員帶你認識美債平衡通膨率！

什麼是美債通膨平衡率 ？

美債平衡通膨率為美國同天期公債與抗通膨債券（TIPS）兩者的殖利率差。在認識美債平衡通膨率的之前，先來拆解影響兩者殖利率的因子：

影響美國公債殖利率因子：避險情緒（負向）、聯準會貨幣政策（負向）、預期通膨（正向）
影響抗通膨債券（TIPS）殖利率因子：避險情緒（負向）、聯準會貨幣政策（負向）
透過拆解美債殖利率及抗通膨債券殖利率的影響因子可以發現，兩者皆會受到避險情緒及聯準會政策影響，唯一的差異在於預期通膨的影響，兩者利差在相互抵銷共同影響因子後，更能精準反應預期通膨。

當市場對未來經濟前景看好，預期未來通膨趨於上行，兩者利差的美債平衡通膨率也會跟著回升，反之亦然。

【推薦閱讀】債券觀測站：M平方帶你一次看懂債券市場！

【推薦閱讀】美國財政部增強TIPS發行計畫啟動，掌握黃金逢低投資關鍵！

如何使用美債平衡通膨率觀察市場信心 ？

觀察近十年，可以發現在2008年金融海嘯、2014年原物料崩盤、2020年新冠肺炎，都可以發現美債平衡通膨率明顯震盪下行，透露市場對經濟前景信心悲觀，預期未來通膨下滑。

近期美債平衡通膨率連續3個月回升，反映在經濟重啟、財政政策挹注下，市場對復甦具有信心，通膨預期提升。展望未來，只要美債通膨率能持續上升，美股便能再續上漲動能，建議投資人保持關注！

Save 北美-半導體設備出貨金額報吿

Save 2022 Fed Interest Rates Projections at Yearend

CME Group releases its daily projections of Fed's interest rates at the end of the year. It reveals the numbers of rate cuts in the year.

0.00% to 0.25% means Fed kept rates unchanged
0.25% to 0.50% means Fed raised rates by 25 bps
0.50% to 0.75% means Fed raised rates by 50 bps
0.75% to 1.00% means Fed raised rates by 75 bps

Save US Fed Excess Reserves (Yearly Change) vs. DXY Index

Fed's excess reserves have a highly negative correlation with the DXY index. (Y-axis is reversed for excess reserves in this chart.)

Excess reserves can be seen as an indicator for USD liquidity, with which it has a negative correlation. When Fed began to cut rates, implement open market operations, or purchase short-term debts, liquidity increases.

Save 美國-製造/服務業循環

Save US 10-year Bond Yield - 2-year Bond Yield

Long-term bond yield reflects inflation. Short-term bond yields are tools used to predict Fed's interest rate policy. Spread between the two represents four cycles of an economy.

1. Growth
Short--term yield rises as interest rates rise. Spread narrows.

2. Slow growth
Central bank raises interest rates faster and short-term yield exceeds long-term yield. Spread turns negative.

3. Recession
High interest rates lead to more defaults. Inflation caps consumption. Central bank lowers interest rate to stimulate the economy and short-term yield falls. Spread widens.

4. Recovery
Central bank continues easing. Spread remains wide and yield curve remains steep.

Save US Credit Spread vs. S&P 500

MM CCC credit spread = Merrill Lynch CCC-grade high-yield bond yield - US 10-year government bond yield (risk-free interest rate)
It reflects the market's expectations for future corporate default risk.

High-yield bonds are bonds issued by companies with low credit ratings. They have higher credit risk, so the yield will be higher than that of general investment-grade bonds. When the issuer's business is in good condition, the future cash flow will grow and the risk of bankruptcy will decrease. The yield will consequently lower. Possessing such bonds is like trading stocks, investors need to weigh on expectations for the corporate's business outlook.

The credit risk spread goes the opposite direction to that of the stock market, and the credit risk spread is less volatile than the stock market, thus making it easier for investors to grasp the overall condition of the financial market.