The one-year recession probability (10Y–3M model) estimates the likelihood of a US economic recession within the next year based on the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields.
This model is widely used to gauge economic conditions: rising probabilities indicate increased market concern about future growth, while falling probabilities suggest market optimism about the economy.
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US - Probability of Recession Over the Next Year (10Y–3M Model)
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