Dear all,
Since Trump introduced reciprocal tariffs, global markets have experienced significant volatility in April. Taiwan equities, the Vietnamese stock market, and the Nikkei have suffered deeper losses due to tariff impacts. Interestingly, the S&P 500, after a month of sharp ups and downs, ended with only a -1.9% decline, while India’s stock market reached a new high for the year. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index fell notably below 100, long-term U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated sharply—signaling market distrust of Trump’s actions—and gold prices hit a historic high this month.
We did not foresee the market shock triggered by Trump’s April 2nd announcement of reciprocal tariffs. However, rather than reacting with panic, worry, or herd mentality, our research team swiftly published a comprehensive 30+ page analysis on April 8th. We exercised prudence in calmly assessing likely scenarios, potential damage, and appropriate responses in the face of this major black swan event.
We believe April 2 marked the tariff ceiling—subsequent moves are likely to soften
In our 30+ page report, we clearly highlighted the significant gap between Trump’s tariffs and their intended objectives, including the inevitable surge in inflation, increased fiscal deficits, and threats to the status of U.S. Treasuries. Consequently, whether Trump had pre-planned his strategy or his actions exceeded his own expectations, the conclusion remains the same: April 2 represented the worst of the tariff-related headwinds. Recent market developments also
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