Global markets are on edge as U.S.-China trade tensions escalate, driving seismic shifts in semiconductors, retail, and safe-haven assets. Gold has soared to a record $3,400/oz, TSMC powers ahead with 35.3% revenue growth, and U.S. retail sales spike 1.43%—but storm clouds loom. Dive into this week’s Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary (WEFC) to uncover the trends reshaping your portfolio and strategies to navigate the turbulence.
All That Glitters Is Indeed Gold: Trade Wars, Tech Booms, & Gold’s Record Run—What’s Next?
Gold Soars to $3,400 as Safe Havens Shift
Gold futures have shattered records, soaring to $3,400/oz with a 25% YTD gain, as U.S.-China trade fears and a declining share of U.S. debt held overseas drive investors to safety—central banks alone added 300 tons in 2024, the most since 2012. Yet, with volatility spiking and liquidity risks looming, is a correction on the horizon?
Semiconductors Face Trade War Heat
TSMC’s Q1 revenue surged 35.3% YoY to $25.5B, fueled by AI demand as its HPC segment hit 59% share, but a U.S. national security probe and China’s 125% chip tariffs threaten global supply chains—especially with China’s IC production up 90% YoY. Can the tech boom withstand the tariff storm?
U.S. Retail Booms—For Now
U.S. retail sales jumped 1.43% MoM in March—the highest since Jan 2023—as consumers stockpiled ahead of tariffs, with auto sales soaring 5.31% and inventory days dropping to 70. But with tariff price hikes looming after the July 9 suspension ends, will spending hold—or will the Fed’s 100bps rate cuts in 2025 cushion the fall?
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