Yardeni Research | Japan’s Rough Road, China’s Silk Road

Executive Summary:

Fear of Trump’s tariff impacts has already sapped the life out of Japan’s consumer sector, raising the specter of stagflation and thwarting the Bank of Japan’s tightening plans. If BOJ Governor Ueda fails to navigate the economy away from the shoals, he won’t be the first BOJ head set rolling by the Tokyo political establishment. William takes a look at his conundrum. … Also: China is taking full advantage of what it didn’t wish for, i.e., Trump’s Tariff Turmoil. As heavily tariffed Southeast Asian nations disengage from the US, China has begun framing its Belt and Road initiative—designed to unify the region and expand China’s power—as an alternative to US dependence. … Check out the accompanying chart collection.

Bank of Japan I: Tokyo’s Rough Road in 2025

Any list of central bank chiefs who can’t wait for 2025 to end would be a long one, with the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s Kazuo Ueda right at the top. Yet Governor Ueda likely began the year pumped.

Back in January, the BOJ was well on track to exit Tokyo’s deflationary era policy framework. That month, the BOJ hiked its benchmark interest rate from

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