Executive Summary:
How damaging to the US economy are Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff proclamations? The stock market is barely reacting to them anymore, but consumers remain worried about the inflation implications of tariffs, according to “soft” survey data. Even so, they’re still breaking out their billfolds, feeling well supported by the strong labor market. Indeed, the “hard” economic data confirm that the US economy remains remarkably resilient despite Trump’s Tariff Turmoil. Today, Dr. Ed walks us through the data as the US economy deals with Trump’s stress tests. … Check out the accompanying chart collection.
US Economy I: The Art of the Steel.
President Donald Trump may or may not be a loose cannon, i.e., an unpredictable person who is likely to cause unintentional damage. That’s been particularly evident in the unpredictable way he has been conducting his tariff negotiations and policies. Perhaps that is all attributable to his “three-dimensional chess” approach to making deals that he perfected as a real estate developer in New York City. He had to negotiate with contractors, labor unions, and politicians. There undoubtedly was plenty of blustering and bullying during those heated discussions until deals that allowed all sides to declare victory were eventually struck.
Trump seems to be using the same Big Apple approach to negotiating with global leaders to get better trade deals for the US. We are all hoping it works. At first, stock investors were put off by the extreme positions that Trump initially declared. That resulted in an 18.9% correction in the S&P 500 from February 19 through April 8.
▌View Related Live Charts: S&P 500
But investors started
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