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search result
黃泓學
Prime
2023/12/03
America Economics
14567
32
20
1. 消費: 觀察實質可支配所得與實質個人消費支出中,可支配所得來到高水平,也帶動到實質個人消費支出的擴張,過往來看穩定就業,儲蓄,消費,是經濟的巨輪,這時期越長,後續都能提供強勁的內需消費動能。同步搭配庫存的去化,則增添回補庫存力道後,那將是更具爆發力的需求擴
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黃泓學
Prime
2023/11/19
America Economics
15869
31
7
1.核心PCE大於長期通膨目標2%使聯準會維持高利率一段時間,在景氣不衰退情況金融股表現 2.1995年聯準會啟動升息循環,且就業維持強勁,利率維持高位,在此次景氣循環終點時,金融股報酬遠遠優於大盤(272%:140%),極度符合此次通膨-利率高位-不衰退 3.FOMC2023年利率預期升息
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黃泓學
Prime
2023/11/09
America Economics
Raw Materials
21425
29
20
1.MM名詞解釋: 傳統裂解以 3 桶 WTI 原油煉製 2 桶汽油(RBOB)以及 1 桶加熱用燃油(HO)為基準,裂解「價差」=(RBOB 汽油的每桶價格 x 2 + HO 取暖油的每桶價格 x 1)- WTI 原油的每桶價格 x 3 ,"意謂煉油廠的利潤" 從煉油廠預期到實際購買及煉油會有 1 個
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黃泓學
Prime
2023/11/06
America Economics
22531
28
21
結論:只要觀察就業維持擴張消費無虞,即使在高利率下仍無懼升息 1.過往在製造業由去庫存,至回補庫存階段,在升息中是否經濟還能有增長? 1.1可以觀察1998-2000年期間,大幅升息,由4.75-6.5%,同時觀察到MM製造業周期指數,處於被動去庫存至主動補庫存 (即MM製造業落底至上升
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李高瑋
Prime
2023/11/05
America Economics
18618
3
4
這張圖表顯示了幾個重點 1.近一季債券崩盤其實聯準會縮表貢獻了不少 聯準會資產負債表規模一年之內從高點減少了13% 財政部發債也加速債券趕底 降低(替代)了升息的可能性 2.這圖可以很清楚的看見貨幣政策的滯後性 雖然Core CPI降很慢 但非農就業人口與PMI(新訂單-存
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