Dear all,
We’ve just wrapped up a dramatic first half of the year. Global equity markets have nearly rebounded to pre-April 2nd tariff levels. In June, most markets continued to rise—S&P 500 gained 3.1%, European equities rose 0.9%, and Asian markets saw increases between 2% and 4%. The US dollar index remained weak, reflecting the market’s lack of confidence in Trump’s policy credibility. US Treasury yields were largely stable, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between 4.3% and 4.5%. The one major exception this month came from a sharp spike in oil prices, driven by the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict.
I. Trump 2.0: Market No Longer Buying the Hype—Headline Risks Fading
Since Trump’s return to the spotlight, we’ve seen headlines dominated by tariff threats, US credit rating concerns, and wild market swings in stocks, currencies, and bonds. Our research team has closely tracked these developments. Early on, we identified three major contradictions, arguing that April 2nd marked the peak of
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