Dear all,
Tariffs have once again been extended, and the US has stepped up trade negotiations across the globe. On July 10, we released another update on Trump’s tariff strategy, noting that “moderate tariffs” are the true intended tool—not all-out trade war. Ultimately, we expect reciprocal tariffs to settle in the 10–15% range. As markets digested the news, and as of July 30, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had risen +2.7% and +4.6%, respectively. European equities gained +1.9%, while major Asian markets also posted strong gains: Vietnam and Indonesia—key Southeast Asian economies now in agreement with the US—both surged nearly +9%, China’s Shanghai Composite rose +4.3%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +4.6%, Japan’s Nikkei +1.7%, and Taiwan’s TAIEX +4%. Overall, global equities broadly moved higher this month.
Beyond tariffs, July has brought a flurry of Trump-led policy initiatives. Several major bills have been rolled out, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the GENIUS Act, and the CLARITY Act, alongside the announcement of a sweeping AI Action Plan. We believe the underlying logic of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” agenda is becoming increasingly clear. Now is the time to reassess the essence of these policies—and more importantly, recognize how they point to key long-term investment directions.
To help visualize this, we’ve prepared the chart below that clearly lays out the Trump 2.0 policy framework—starting from three major challenges facing the US, mapping out corresponding policy responses, legislative progress, and the industries likely to benefit.
I. Stabilizing the Economy & Preserving US Hegemony Through Tax Cuts & Defense Spending
The IMF projects that the US’s share of global GDP will decline slightly from 27% today to 25% over the next five years. This decline has sparked debate over whether US hegemony can be sustained.
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