Demography Is Destiny: 5 Key Findings from 2024 UN World Population Prospects

“Demography is destiny,” a concept introduced by French philosopher and sociologist Auguste Comte, underscores the idea that population is a core capital and driving force of any economy, pivotal in shaping labor supply, consumer demand, productivity, housing markets, healthcare, social welfare, and even the balance of power among nations.

In this article, we compare two of the United Nations' World Population Prospects reports (2022 vs. 2024), focusing on three key themes: declining global population, population aging across nations, and the surge in international migration. The analysis will highlight key trends and forecasts, featuring useful charts and visualizations from our newly-launched Cross-Country Database.

I. Global Population Estimates Revised Down Significantly

According to the latest World Population Prospects 2024 report released in July, global population has reached 8.16 billion in 2024 and is expected to surpass 10 billion in the 2060s and peak in the 2080s before declining to 10.18 billion by the end of the century. The projections mainly reflect the long-term demographic trends of continued population aging and declining birth rates worldwide.

As shown in the chart below, a comparison of the 2022 and 2024 reports shows that long-term population estimates for around 140 economies have been revised downward. Among major economies, Hong Kong (-57%), the Philippines (-37%), and Taiwan (-34%) saw the most significant downward adjustments.

II. Global Fertility Rate Decline to Lead to Peak Population in 2084

Although the world’s population is expected to grow for a few more decades, as fertility rate data from our Cross-Country Database suggests, global population growth is already slowing rapidly. A fertility rate of at least 2.1 births per woman is necessary to sustain a population, as this rate ensures that each couple is replaced by two children. However, fertility rates in many countries are already below that threshold: Europe and the Americas generally range between 1.4~1.6, Japan is at 1.2, China at 1, and Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan are between 0.7 ~0.9.

III. Natural Population Decline to Begin Earlier

The global population is projected to peak at 10.29 billion in 2084, two years earlier than the year projected peak year of 2086 in the 2022 report. This revision reflects the impact of sub-replacement fertility rates.

Across the world, Europe, especially Eastern and Southern Europe, is among the first to experience natural population decline (registering more deaths than births). Germany, for instance, has been experiencing negative natural population growth since the 1970s. Natural population decline in other advanced economies, including France, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Turkey, is also projected to take place earlier than previously estimated.

In Asia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, South Korea, and Thailand also began to face the challenge of population decline around the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Even the Philippines, which boasts a strong demographic dividend,

demographic growth, is now projected to see population decline by 2061, drastically earlier from the previous projected 2096.

In the latest report, only a few countries saw delayed timing of natural population decline, including Singapore (2038 vs. previously estimated 2031) and Mexico (2062 vs. previously estimated 2054). Beyond that, four countries are projected to escape from the fate of entering natural population decline in this century: Australia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.

IV. World to Enter "Super-Aged Society" by 2070

The UN’s latest projections suggest that the global population aged 65 and older is expected to reach 1.9 billion by 2063, surpassing the number of people under age 15. By 2070, over 20% of the global population will be 65 or older, marking a transition into a “super-aged society.”

Regionally, Europe is already a super-aged society, with over 20% of its population aged 65 or older in 2024. North America is expected to reach this threshold before 2030, while Latin America, Asia, and Oceania are projected to follow suit in the 2050s. Africa, however, remains the only continent expected to maintain a relatively young demographic structure.

Note: According to the World Health Organization, a population is considered to be “aging” when 7% of its population is aged 65 or older, as “aged society” when that percentage reaches 14%, and as “super-aged society” when the percentage reaches 20%.

V. Long-Term Migration Trends Suggest Major English-Speaking Nations Remain Top Destinations

What are the solutions to low birth rates and population aging? Besides factors affecting natural population growth (e.g. birth rate, mortality rate, and fertility rate) or changes in demographic structure (e.g. proportion of elderly or youth population), it is also crucial to consider population growth contributed by cross-border migration. Countries or regions with higher net migration rates can rely on immigration to address labor shortages, while lower or negative net migration rates may imply political or economic uncertainties, which tend to lead to population outflows.

Over the long term, between 2024 and 2050, English-speaking countries are expected to see the most significant contribution from immigration to their population growth, such will be the case for Canada (estimated contribution of 18.2 percentage points), Australia (15.2 percentage points), the UK (10.8 percentage points), and the U.S. (9.7 percentage points). In absolute numbers, the U.S. will remain the largest recipient of immigrants, with a projected net influx of around 33 million people during 2024~2050, followed by Russia (7.5 million), the UK (7.4 million), Canada (7.1 million), and South Africa (4.3 million).

Key Takeaways

Lastly, here’s an overview of five more important population trends to watch :

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