MacroMicro’s Economic Expectations & Recession Probabilities: Chart Pack [PDF Download]
MacroMicro Recession Probabilities
MacroMicro calculates recession probabilities for major countries using key economic indicators and a Dynamic Logistic Regression Model. Based on research from NBER and OECD, recessions typically involve negative GDP growth, rising unemployment, and a stock market decline.
MM Economic Expectations Index
The MM Economic Expectations Index reflects changes in market estimates for GDP growth in each economy. The index is the weighted average of GDP estimates for this year and next year from institutions, including the IMF, World Bank, OECD, and major think tanks). A rising index indicates the market is optimistic about the economy in the next 12 months.
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