US–Iran talks have faced renewed setbacks, with Strait of Hormuz traffic still disrupted and normalization odds declining. Yet global equities continue to look through the noise, as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Taiwan, and South Korea extend gains on tech strength and resilient AI demand.
With oil still hovering around $100, markets are treating the conflict as a contained energy shock. This week, we focus on trading strategies, earnings season, Asia tech trends, and the insights behind MacroMicro’s exclusive indicators.
Key Focus of This Week’s Report
1. Fiscal Expansion, Fed Easing and Global Rotation Return to Focus: Markets are refocusing on fiscal expansion, Fed easing, and global rotation. Higher defense spending supports the debasement trade and gold, while fading safe-haven demand revives a weaker-dollar trend and non-US equity rotation. AI remains the leader, but capital is broadening into ASIC supply chains, including Broadcom, MediaTek, and Marvell.
2. Q1 Earnings Keep the Bull Case Intact: Q1 earnings continue to support the rebound. With 28% of S&P 500 companies reported, 84% beat EPS estimates and 81% beat revenue estimates, while blended EPS growth reached 15.1%. Intel and Texas Instruments showed improving demand, while Tesla remains a longer-term Robotaxi, FSD, and Optimus story.
3. Asia Tech Watch: Agentic AI, Pricing Power and Supply Chain Upgrades: Asia tech remains central to AI growth. Agentic AI is lifting inference demand, while memory, eSSD, NAND, ABF substrates, and thermal solutions are entering a structural pricing cycle. Server DRAM ASP forecasts for 2026Q1 were revised up to +93–98%, while TSMC raised its AI accelerator revenue CAGR outlook to 56–59%.
4. From Fear to Greed: MacroMicro’s Indicators Confirm Fundamental Support: MacroMicro’s indicators show the March selloff was an inflation and valuation shock, not a fundamental breakdown. The global MM Fear & Greed Index rebounded from extreme fear to extreme greed in under four weeks, while the MM Bull-Bear Index shows no major market in bear territory except India. US recession probability fell to 16.1%.
5. This Week’s Focus: Magnificent Seven, GDP, and Rate Decisions: Markets now turn to Big Tech earnings, US and eurozone GDP, and central bank decisions. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Apple will test whether AI demand can keep exceeding expectations. The Fed, BoJ, ECB, and BoE are expected to hold rates, with focus on future easing optionality.
About Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary (WEFC)
The MacroMicro WEFC is published weekly, delivering rigorous analysis and in-depth insights on the most critical market-moving events. Coverage spans equities, foreign exchange, bonds, commodities, global central banks, geopolitics, and the international political economy.
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Get answers from MM AI.
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How do fiscal expansion and Fed easing influence global market rotation?
💡Fiscal expansion and Fed easing are shifting market focus towards higher defense spending, which supports the debasement trade and gold. Simultaneously, fading safe-haven demand is reviving a weaker-dollar trend and encouraging non-US equity rotation, indicating a broader global reallocation of capital.
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What Q1 earnings results from S&P 500 companies support the current market rebound?
💡Q1 earnings results from S&P 500 companies strongly support the current market rebound, with 28% of companies reporting 84% beating EPS estimates, 81% beating revenue estimates, and blended EPS growth reaching 15.1%, indicating robust corporate performance.
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How did Intel and Texas Instruments' recent earnings reports indicate demand trends?
💡Intel and Texas Instruments' recent earnings reports indicated improving demand, contributing positively to the overall market sentiment and suggesting a strengthening in the semiconductor sector.
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What is the revised server DRAM ASP forecast for 2026Q1?
💡The revised server DRAM Average Selling Price (ASP) forecast for 2026Q1 has been significantly revised up to +93–98%, reflecting strong anticipated demand and pricing power in the memory market.
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How has TSMC's AI accelerator revenue CAGR outlook changed?
💡TSMC's AI accelerator revenue CAGR outlook has been revised upwards to 56–59%, indicating a more optimistic projection for growth in its AI-related semiconductor manufacturing services.
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How quickly did the global MacroMicro Fear & Greed Index rebound?
💡The global MacroMicro Fear & Greed Index rebounded from extreme fear to extreme greed in under four weeks, indicating a rapid shift in investor sentiment and market confidence following the March selloff.
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What is the current US recession probability according to MacroMicro data?
💡The current US recession probability, according to MacroMicro data, has fallen to 16.1%, indicating a low likelihood of an economic downturn in the near future.
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Which Big Tech companies' earnings will test AI demand expectations this week?
💡Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Apple are the Big Tech companies whose earnings reports this week will test whether AI demand can continue to exceed market expectations and drive further growth.
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