In recent days, the US Supreme Court has held oral arguments on the Trump tariff case, drawing market attention to a key question: could these tariffs ultimately be ruled illegal? However, we believe that even if the final ruling goes against him, Trump would still have alternative legal grounds to continue using tariffs as a tool of foreign policy pressure. At this critical juncture, we chose to look back and dissect the underlying logic of the tariff war — how are various countries and industries currently positioning themselves in response to US tariffs? And how might this evolving tariff war reshape the global trade landscape over the short, medium, and long term? This article serves not only as a review and analysis but also as the first piece in MacroMicro’s 2026 Global Outlook Series, opening a new chapter on global economic trends for the year ahead.
Key Takeaways:
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2025 Tariff Review: As expected, tensions have eased, with tariff hikes contained within a manageable range of 10–15%.
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Core Logic of Tariff Design: Self-protection remains the top priority. The overall tariff structure is highly targeted, deliberately avoiding sectors where US damage would be greatest.
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Tariff Impact: From short-, medium-, and long-term perspectives, we assess the potential consequences for the US, global supply chains, and the US–China power rivalry.
Since Donald Trump took office at the start of 2025, the global trade environment has undergone dramatic fluctuations. Concerns about a global recession surged in April after Washington announced a wave of “reciprocal tariffs.” At that time, our 30+ page in-depth report analyzed three major contradictions in Trump’s tariff policy and forecast that tariff hikes would eventually moderate. Events have since unfolded largely as we projected. The US has gradually reached trade agreements with its major partners, including direct tariff reductions or duty-free treatment for specific goods. With the general direction of tariff policy now largely settled, we mark this moment as the “final chapter” of the tariff saga—the starting point of our 2026 Outlook Series—to review the logic behind these tariffs and explore what lies ahead after the tariff endgame.
I. 2025 Tariff Review: A Shift Toward Moderation as Expected
The most intense moment of tariff tension in 2025 came on April 2, when Washington officially released its global “super-reciprocal tariff” list, sending trade war sentiment
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