This year, major players in the AI sector have signed numerous cooperative agreements, creating a complex web of intertwined interests—playfully dubbed by the market as the “AI Perpetual Motion Machine.” Are there risks of a funding break in this cyclical corporate ecosystem? What indicators should we monitor going forward? This article aims to clarify these questions.
Key Points:
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What is the AI Perpetual Motion Machine: Major AI players form a shared-fate community of mutual interests through commitments to purchases and investment plans. The structure includes compute power suppliers as “fuel,” cloud service providers as “gears,” and end-application providers as the “engine.”
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Dissecting AI Application Growth: Whether end applications can continue to expand is the most critical component of this perpetual motion machine. Currently, the adoption speed of AI far exceeds past productivity cycles. Further estimates of OpenAI's revenue and costs suggest that, in a neutral-to-optimistic scenario, OpenAI could turn its funding gap positive within the next three years, supporting the ongoing operation of the AI funding ecosystem.
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Three Key Indicators to Watch: 1) End-application suppliers: Is the engine idling? 2) Cloud service suppliers: Are the gears running smoothly? 3) Computing power suppliers: Is there enough fuel?
Since September, positive news in the AI industry chain has been coming thick and fast. First, Oracle secured a massive $300 billion procurement order from OpenAI. This was followed by announcements from Nvidia, CoreWeave, AMD, and others of investment and other cooperation agreements with OpenAI. The AI industry now appears to be evolving into a complex community of intertwined interests, playfully referred to by the market as the "AI Perpetual Motion Machine." This reflects growing external concerns about the risks of circular transactions between companies. What exactly is the structure of this AI Perpetual Motion Machine? Is there a risk of capital chain disruption? And what indicators should we focus on next? This article will guide you through a comprehensive analysis.
I. What is the "AI Perpetual Motion Machine"? Where Lies the True Critical Node?
Since the beginning of this year, major players in the AI field have successively signed numerous cooperation agreements, largely centered around OpenAI, Nvidia, and major CSP (Cloud Service Provider) companies, forming an ecosystem where interests are highly intertwined. These tech giants have created a shared-fate community of mutual benefits through commitments to purchases and investment plans. But what risks does this “AI Perpetual Motion Machine” entail?
We can categorize AI-related companies into three layers:
- Compute Power Suppliers (Fuel):
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