World leaders are arriving in South Korea this week for the APEC summit. President Trump has a full agenda, starting with the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, followed by bilateral trade talks with Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and South Korea’s President Lee Jae-myung. The centerpiece will be his highly anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan on the morning of October 30.
This Asia tour puts Trump’s trade diplomacy on full display and could reshape the global economic order.
Markets will also be active, with major tech earnings and key rate decisions from the Fed, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank. Full insights are in this week’s WEFC report.
Strong Q3 Earnings Momentum Sets Stage for Big Tech Results
Q3 earnings season is off to a strong start. So far, 87% of S&P 500 companies have topped earnings estimates—matching a post-2021 high. Revenue beats also hit a record, with 83% surpassing forecasts. Blended earnings growth rose to 9.2%, up from 7.9% at the quarter's start. Tesla missed on EPS but posted strong delivery numbers and announced robotaxi plans for year-end. Intel beat expectations thanks to government and corporate investments but guided lower for Q4 and continues to struggle with its foundry business. This week, all eyes turn to Big Tech: Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Apple, and Amazon report earnings.
Cooling Inflation Strengthens Case for Fed Rate Cuts
U.S. September CPI rose 3.02% YoY, slightly above August’s 2.94%, but below expectations. Core CPI rose 3.03%, easing from 3.11%, with monthly gains also cooling. Weaker inflation was driven by falling auto prices and slower rent increases. Core services inflation dipped to 3.7% from 4.0%. Ahead of the FOMC blackout, Fed officials signaled growing concern over labor market risks rather than inflation, supporting the case for more cuts. Powell hinted that balance sheet runoff could soon end as bank reserves fall near key thresholds. Markets now price in a 95% chance of a rate cut in October, with more expected in 2025–26.
Big Decisions Ahead: Fed Cuts? BoJ and ECB Hold?
This week marks a major central bank lineup. On Oct. 29, the Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps. Markets are watching for confirmation that QT (quantitative tightening) will pause, following Powell’s hint that reserve levels are nearing a floor. Japan’s central bank is expected to hold rates steady, while the ECB is also likely to stay on pause amid signs of stabilizing domestic demand and improving economic outlook.
Trump’s Asia Tour Targets Trade Realignment and China Strategy
President Trump’s Asia trip centers on reshaping regional trade. At the ASEAN Summit, he signed bilateral deals with Malaysia and Cambodia, including a rare earth cooperation clause with Malaysia—covering exploration, exports, and processing—to reduce China’s dominance in critical minerals. The deals also introduce export controls, investment screening, and anti-circumvention rules targeting China’s supply chain shifts. Trump attended a ceasefire ceremony at the Cambodia–Thailand border and will meet Japan’s new PM to finalize a trade and defense deal tied to $550B in Japanese investment. In Busan on Oct. 30, a key Trump-Xi summit may produce a framework deal on rare earths, tech, and tariffs.
Already a subscriber? Click here to log in.
Full Access to Our Services
Comprehensive data at your service
with key indicators for investment insights
Exclusive flash reports
on key events and data
Create your own charts and analysis
including performance backtesting
Hub of professionals to engage
in meaningful discussions and insights
Big Tech earnings week is here! Stay ahead with MacroMicro’s Economic Calendar — track CPI, GDP, and key earnings like Apple & Google all in one place. Check it out »
