The Fed delivered an expected quarter-point rate cut and announced purchases of T-bills to stabilize market liquidity. However, the move was met with dissent from two hawkish committee members. Globally, the ECB and RBA are also sounding hawkish notes. Will 2026 bring a decisive pivot in central bank policy?
Meanwhile, disappointing earnings from Oracle and Broadcom reignited market worries over an AI Bubble. What key indicators should be tracked to monitor this risk?
Finally, as AI-driven data center demand pushes up electricity costs, Bitcoin mining is suffering from shrinking profit margins. How will surging costs and competitive energy usage impact the price trajectory of Bitcoin? These key points are covered in this week's WEFC.
🎁 Special Gift — Final Countdown: Unlock the 2026 Outlook Series with MM Max Annual. Subscribe Now »
Fed Cuts 25bp Amid Deepening Policy Rift; Upgrades 2026 Growth
The Federal Reserve cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to $3.50%-3.75% in December 2025, completing a 75bp easing cycle. The 9-3 vote split—with one member seeking 50bp and two opposing any cut—underscored deepening committee division as rates approach the $3.0% neutral estimate. Forward guidance shifted to caution, noting the jobless rate has "edged up." Economic Projections (SEP) showed confidence, upgrading 2026 GDP growth to 2.3% while lowering 2026 Core PCE inflation to 2.5%. The Fed also restarted short-term Treasury purchases to stabilize bank reserves.
Taiwan's AI-Driven Export Boom Hits Record High on Massive US Chip Demand
Taiwan's November 2025 export value hit a record high of $64.05 billion, surging $56% year-over-year (fastest since 2010), driven almost entirely by AI demand. Information and Communication Technology (ICT) products skyrocketed $170.8% and electronic components grew $29.3%. Exports to the US surged $182% to a record $24.4 billion, reflecting massive AI infrastructure investment from US hyperscalers. TSMC's robust $24.5% YoY revenue growth validated the strength of high-end semiconductor demand, positioning Taiwan's export performance as a leading indicator for sustained global equity strength into 2026.
End of the Easing Cycle? ECB and RBA Signal 2026 Rate Hikes
The global rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end, with a general shift toward prolonged holds or potential hikes in 2026. The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at current levels, with Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel suggesting a hike is more likely than a cut if policy moves. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Bullock firmly ruled out cuts, signaling a potential 25-50 basis point hike in 2026 due to sticky inflation and strong domestic demand.
Post-Halving Shock: Bitcoin Mining Costs Soar to $137K, Squeezing Profitability
The average all-in cost for publicly listed Bitcoin miners surged to $137,800 per BTC in Q2 2025, significantly above the current price of approximately $90,000-$95,000. This profitability crisis is driven by the April 2024 halving (cutting rewards by half) combined with a record-high network hashrate (1.1 ZH/s). Cash costs alone reached $74,600, with non-cash expenses like depreciation adding another $63,200. Energy remains the dominant factor, with a competitive gap in electricity costs ($27,562 to $59,115 per BTC) forcing miners to prioritize fleet efficiency.
Already a subscriber? Click here to log in.
Full Access to Our Services
Comprehensive data at your service
with key indicators for investment insights
Exclusive flash reports
on key events and data
Create your own charts and analysis
including performance backtesting
Hub of professionals to engage
in meaningful discussions and insights
Big Tech earnings week is here! Stay ahead with MacroMicro’s Economic Calendar — track CPI, GDP, and key earnings like Apple & Google all in one place. Check it out »
