Executive Summary:
President Trump is determined to lower the interest paid on government debt one way or the other. One way is replacing Fed Chair Powell with a Trump loyalist who tries to convince the rest of the FOMC that the federal funds rate must fall, the data be damned. Another involves replacing maturing long-term Treasury bonds with short-term Treasury bills until long-term bond yields fall enough to refinance advantageously. Such “Yield Curve Control” requires the cooperation of US Treasury Secretary Bessent (which Trump has) and the Bond Vigilantes (which he doesn’t). Is it a clever way to lower the federal government’s net interest outlays or is it a catalyst to capital markets turmoil? … Check out the accompanying chart collection.
US Debt I: Trump vs Powell
President Donald Trump wants lower interest rates. He blames Fed Chair Jerome Powell for keeping them too high. He has been saying so since his first term in office as President. He said so again on June 27: “I think we should be paying 1% right now, and we’re paying more because
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