Executive Summary:
The latest US–China aggressions have the financial markets worried about the high stakes of a trade war between the globe’s biggest trading nation and its largest economy. William observes that a disruption to global supply chains would have adverse consequences for earnings, economic growth, and central banks’ pursuit of their mandates. But given the severity of the consequences, we expect a quick de-escalation of the tensions, with both sides willing to negotiate. … Also: The German economy is contracting, with weak industrial production, exports, employment, and consumer sentiment. Yet the government’s stimulus measures do little to address the underlying structural causes. … Check out the accompanying chart collection.
Trade War I: Trump Vs China, Game On (Again)
A reboot of the US–China trade war is the last thing the global economy needs as 2025 staggers toward a close. But we think both sides are likely to blink given the dire risks to the global economy.
Wall Street was quick to express its displeasure over President Donald Trump’s slapping another 100% tariff on Asia’s biggest economy in response to China’s curbing rare-earth mineral exports. Friday brought the S&P 500’s biggest
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